BOARD MEETING STATE OF CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCES BOARD LOS ANGELES AIRPORT SHERATON GATEWAY HOTEL 6101 WEST CENTURY BOULEVARD LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 23, 2004 9:00 A.M. JAMES F. PETERS, CSR, RPR CERTIFIED SHORTHAND REPORTER LICENSE NUMBER 10063 PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 ii APPEARANCES BOARD MEMBERS Dr. Alan Lloyd, Chairperson Ms. Sandra Berg Ms. Dorene D'Adamo Supervisor Mark DeSaulnier Dr. Henry Gong Ms. Barbara Patrick Ms. Patricia Salas Pineda Mrs. Barbara Riordan Supervisor Ron Roberts STAFF Ms. Catherine Witherspoon, Executive Officer Mr. Tom Cackette, Chief Deputy Executive Officer Mr. Michael Scheible, Deputy Executive Officer Ms. Lynn Terry, Deputy Executive Officer Ms. Diane Johnston, General Counsel Ms. Kathleen Tschogl, Ombudsman Mr. Steve Albu, Mobile Source Control Division Mr. Richard Corey, Chief, Research and Economic Studies Branch, Research Division Mr. Bart Croes, Chief, Research Division Mr. Fereidun Feizollahi, Air Resources Supervisor I PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 iii APPEARANCES CONTINUED STAFF CONTINUED Mr. Paul Hughes, Manager, Low Emission Vehicle Implementation Section, Mobile Source Control Division Mr. Aron Livingston, Staff Counsel Mr. Nic Lutsey, Graduate Student Assistant, Mobile Source Control Division Mr. Chuck Shulock, Vehicle Program Specialist Dr. Barbara Weller, Manager, Population Studies Section, Research Division ALSO PRESENT Mr. Larry Allen, CAPCOA Mr. Tom Austin, Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers Mr. James Boyd, Commissioner, California Energy Commission Mr. John Cabaniss, AIAM Mr. Tim Carmichael, Coalition for Clean Air Mr. Dan Cayan, Scripps Institution Dr. Henry Clark, West County Toxics Coalition Ms. Coralie Cooper, NESCCAF/Nescaum Mr. John DeCicco, Environmental Defense Mr. David Doniger, Natural Resources Defense Council Mr. Bob Epstein, Environmental Entrepreneurs Mr. Michel Gelobter, Redefining Progress Ms. Sujatha Jahagirdar, Environment California Mr. Felix Kramer, California Cars Initiative Mr. Russel Long, Bluewater Network PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 iv APPEARANCES CONTINUED ALSO PRESENT Mr. Bob Lucas, CCEEB Mr. David Modisette, California Electric Trans Coalition Ms. Fran Pavley, Assembly Member Mr. Matt Peak, CalSTART Ms. Cynthia Rojas, Bus Riders Union Dr. Trisha Roth, American Academy of Pediatrics CA District IX and Health Network for Clean Air Mr. Michael Prather, UC Irvine Mr. Bob Roberts, California Ski Industry Association Ms. Dorothy Rothrock, California Manufacturers and Technology Association Dr. Benjamin Santer Mr. David Shaw, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation Mr. Fred Webber, Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers Mr. Paul Wuebben, South Coast Air Quality Management District PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 v INDEX PAGE Opening 1 Pledge of Allegiance 1 Roll Call 1 Item 04-8-1 6 Chairperson Lloyd 6 Executive Officer Witherspoon 8 Staff Presentation 8 Board Discussion and Q&A 15 Item 04-8-3 17 Chairperson Lloyd 17 Executive Officer Witherspoon 18 Dr. Santer 19 Board Discussion and Q&A 35 Item 04-8-2 45 Chairperson Lloyd 45 Executive Officer Witherspoon 49 Assemblywoman Fran Pavley 53 Staff Presentation 59 Board Discussion and Q&A 144 Ombudsman Tschogl 158 Dr. Henry Clark 160 Afternoon Session 163 Mr. Rob Roberts 163 Mr. James Boyd 166 Mr. Coralie Cooper 178 Mr. David Shaw 183 Mr. David Doniger 188 Mr. Fred Webber 194 Mr. Tom Austin 213 Mr. John Cabaniss 248 Ms. Dorothy Rothrock 266 Mr. Bob Lucas 274 Mr. Michael Prather 280 Mr. Michel Gelobter 282 Mr. Matt Peak 294 Mr. Dan Cayan 298 Mr. Bob Epstein 304 Mr. Cynthia Rojas 309 PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 vi INDEX CONTINUED PAGE Item 04-8-2(continued) Mr. David Modisette 311 Mr. John DeCicco 314 Mr. Felix Kramer 319 Mr. Paul Wuebben 324 Mr. Russel Long 331 Mr. Larry Allen 337 Ms. Sujatha Jahagirdar 343 Mr. Tim Carmichael 352 Dr. Trisha Roth 356 Board Comments 359 Recess 361 Reporter's Certificate 362 PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 1 1 PROCEEDINGS 2 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Good morning. The September 3 23rd public meeting of the Air Resources Board will now 4 come to order. 5 Mrs. Riordan, would you please lead us in the 6 Pledge of Allegiance. 7 BOARD MEMBER RIORDAN: Would you join me and 8 stand and salute our flag. 9 (Thereupon the Pledge of Allegiance was 10 Recited in unison.) 11 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Thank you very much. 12 Would the clerk of the Board call the roll. 13 BOARD CLERK ANDREONI: Ms. Berg? 14 BOARD MEMBER BERG: Here. 15 BOARD CLERK ANDREONI: Ms. D'Adamo? 16 BOARD MEMBER D'ADAMO: Here. 17 BOARD CLERK ANDREONI: Supervisor DeSaulnier? 18 BOARD MEMBER DeSAULNIER: Here. 19 BOARD CLERK ANDREONI: Dr. Gong? 20 BOARD MEMBER GONG: Here. 21 BOARD CLERK ANDREONI: Ms. Kennard? 22 Supervisor Patrick? 23 BOARD MEMBER PATRICK: Here. 24 BOARD CLERK ANDREONI: Mrs. Riordan? 25 BOARD MEMBER RIORDAN: Here. PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 2 1 BOARD CLERK ANDREONI: Supervisor Roberts? 2 Ms. Pineda? 3 BOARD MEMBER PINEDA: Here. 4 BOARD CLERK ANDREONI: Mr. Loveridge? 5 Chairman Lloyd? 6 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Here. 7 BOARD CLERK ANDREONI: Thank you. 8 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Thank you very much indeed. 9 I'd like to welcome our new Board members. As 10 you probably read from the press, we have five new Board 11 members: Ms. Sandra Berg, Dr. Henry Gong, Ms. Lydia 12 Kennard, Dr. Ron Loveridge, Ms. Pat Pineda. Two of them 13 unfortunately will not be here today, with prior 14 engagements. But why I'd like to welcome them. If you 15 looked at their resumes, wonderful resumes, wonderful 16 background. And I congratulate the Governor and his staff 17 in these great appointments to the Board. 18 I would like to ask them to say a few words, 19 introduce themselves. But before I do that I'd also like 20 to express my great appreciation for the three Board 21 members we've lost since the last meeting. Mr. Joe 22 Calhoun, Dr. Bill Friedman, and Professor Hugh Friedman. 23 They were great colleagues. We'll really miss them. 24 Great service to the State of California. But obviously 25 we move on. So we will certainly keep in touch with them PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 3 1 and we wish them the very best. I know we will definitely 2 keep in touch. 3 So with that I would like to introduce my new 4 colleagues to see if they'd like to say a few words, 5 starting off alphabetically with Ms. Sandra Berg and then 6 Dr. Henry Gong and then Ms. Pat Pineda. 7 BOARD MEMBER BERG: Good morning. Thank you very 8 much, Chairman Lloyd. 9 It's a pleasure for me to be here with the ARB. 10 I'm very grateful that the Governor appointed me as an 11 outstanding appointment, and I appreciate that. 12 I really look forward today. I feel like I've 13 jumped into the fire with this being my first Board 14 meeting. But I certainly look forward to the interaction, 15 the work with my esteemed colleagues and their fabulous 16 staff. 17 So thank you very much for having me. 18 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Thank you. 19 Dr. Gong. 20 BOARD MEMBER GONG: Thank you, Dr. Lloyd. 21 I'm very pleased and appreciative to be appointed 22 to the Board by the Governor. The Governor has affirmed a 23 bold and promising and positive air quality program for 24 California. And I'm delighted to support that and serve 25 as a public servant. PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 4 1 Indeed the role of public servant is rather new 2 for me. But I believe that my medical and research 3 expertise and experiences will bring important insights to 4 the table. 5 I'm enjoying -- actually enjoying this process of 6 the ARB and its environment and its facilities and all the 7 issues that come with it. I have been trying to prepare 8 myself for this day, thanks to staff and others whom I 9 talked to. And I believe that this should be a very 10 interesting two days that we have here together. 11 I'd also recommend for those in the audience who 12 would like to survive the two days to purchase a seat 13 cushion. 14 (Laughter.) 15 BOARD MEMBER GONG: This is what I always bring. 16 Thank you. 17 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Thank you, Dr. Gong. 18 Ms. Pineda. 19 BOARD MEMBER GONG: It's a bit of medical advice. 20 (Laughter.) 21 BOARD MEMBER PINEDA: I just want to say that I'm 22 truly honored to have been appointed by the Governor to 23 this fine board. 24 As of business person and as an individual who 25 cares deeply about the environment, I do hope to bring a PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 5 1 balanced view to the Board. And I know that my colleagues 2 also share a balanced view. But perhaps with my business 3 background, I will bring additional views to the Board. 4 I would like to make one comment, Mr. Chairman. 5 Today's meeting of the Board is the first public meeting 6 since my appointment by the Governor. And knowing the 7 importance of today's Board item relating to climate 8 change, I'm here to listen to the presentations and 9 staff's regulatory proposal. However, I want to be clear 10 that as an officer of Toyota Motor Corporation of North 11 America, I would like to disclose that I do have an 12 economic interest that is being evaluated by the Fair 13 Political Practices Commission as a potential conflict of 14 interest. And because I have not yet received an opinion 15 from the FPPC, I will be listening to the proceedings; but 16 I want to make very clear that I will not participate in 17 the deliberations or the vote on this matter. 18 Thank you. 19 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Thank you very much. 20 And, again, you will note that again Governor 21 Schwarzenegger has continued this strong tradition of a 22 bipartisan board, reflecting the true support of all 23 Californians for environmental issues. So I'm really 24 delighted to be part of the Board continuing and also with 25 new colleagues. And we start with a tough item today. PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 6 1 I would say, Dr. Gong, one of the things you 2 recognize that now you're in the public spotlight, I'm 3 already getting questions as to whether that foam cushion 4 was developed using VOC's, hydrofluorocarbons. And so you 5 will recognize you are going to be held with different 6 standards. 7 (Laughter.) 8 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: In all seriousness, we really 9 have some serious items before us today. We'll start off 10 by saying all the agenda items before the Board relate to 11 the consideration of the proposed regulations and test 12 procedures to control greenhouse gas emissions from motor 13 vehicles. That's Agenda Item 04-8-2. For this reason, 14 I'm opening the record now for item 04-8-2. In this way 15 all of the presentations and related public testimony will 16 be part of the record for the regulations. 17 We will be begin with the Agenda Item 04-8-1, 18 public health update, impact of climate change on public 19 health. 20 As we enter this item I'd like to remind anyone 21 in the audience who wishes to testify on today's agenda 22 items to please sign up with the clerk of the Board. And 23 if you have written comments, please provide 30 copies to 24 the Board clerk. 25 As I mentioned, the first item is the Public PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 7 1 Health Update. So the normal monthly health update. 2 Again, for the past several years we've started 3 every Board meeting with a topic that drives our entire 4 mission, that is, public health, public health for the 5 citizens of California. 6 The Air Resources Board conducts its own primary 7 research into air pollution health effects; as you will 8 have seen some of the work we supported with the recent 9 landmark studies at USC. We also collaborate with and 10 follow the findings of air pollution researchers around 11 the globe. These findings are published in academic and 12 other peer-reviewed journals and can be found through 13 various websites. 14 But the Board health updates serve as direct 15 briefings on major health findings and gives us all 16 opportunity to ask questions about what the findings mean 17 and how they affect our regulatory efforts and other 18 programs, since I indicated our responsibility is to 19 protect public health. 20 Today's health update is on the topic that is the 21 focus of today's Board hearing, global climate change and 22 the impacts it could have on public health. 23 So with that I'd like to turn it over to our 24 Executive Officer, Ms. Witherspoon to begin staff 25 presentation. PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 8 1 EXECUTIVE OFFICER WITHERSPOON: Good morning, 2 Chairman Lloyd and members of the Board. 3 Global climate change is of increasing concern to 4 the scientific community and the public. Today we will 5 hear two presentations on climate change, followed by a 6 proposed regulation to control greenhouse gases. 7 The first presentation is a Board health update 8 that highlights a recent report by Harvard University on 9 the human health impact of climate change due to increased 10 levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. 11 Dr. Barbara Weller from our Research Division 12 will make today's presentation. 13 Dr. Weller. 14 (Thereupon an overhead presentation was 15 Presented as follows.) 16 POPULATION STUDIES SECTION MANAGER WELLER: To 17 align our health update with the focus of today's Board 18 meeting, I will discuss recent findings on the potential 19 health impacts of climate change. Drs. Paul Epstein and 20 Christine Rogers of Harvard Medical School have recently 21 published a report on the health impacts from climate 22 change and how the effects of climate change may have a 23 disproportionate impact on the poor and minority groups in 24 U.S. cities. 25 --o0o-- PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 9 1 POPULATION STUDIES SECTION MANAGER WELLER: The 2 Combustion of fossil fuels by motor vehicles and 3 industrial plants contribute to air pollution, as well as 4 contributing to greenhouse gas emissions and, therefore, 5 climate change. The effects of combustion pollution on 6 our population include increases in asthma attacks, other 7 respiratory illnesses, and premature death, especially 8 among those with preexisting heart and lung diseases. 9 Climate change can lead to death from heat waves and 10 injuries from other extreme weather events. Climate 11 change may also contribute to increases in allergens and 12 infectious diseases. 13 --o0o-- 14 POPULATION STUDIES SECTION MANAGER WELLER: The 15 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects a 2.5 16 to 10.4 ° Fahrenheit increase in earth's surface 17 temperature by the end of this century. Climate change 18 will result in not only warmer average temperatures, but 19 also in unstable weather patterns and more episodes of 20 extreme weather. 21 Although it is uncertain whether long-term 22 climate change was responsible for the event, temperature 23 during last year's heat wave in Europe were the hottest on 24 record, an 18 ° Fahrenheit above the 30-year average. 25 These extreme temperatures resulted in 23,000 PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 10 1 excess deaths in six western European countries. Studies 2 in England, Wales and The Netherlands attributed 20 to 40 3 percent of the deaths to increased PM10 and ozone levels. 4 For example, average June to August ozone levels in The 5 Netherlands were 43 percent above the same months in 2000, 6 the most recent year with average summer weather; and PM10 7 levels were 13 percent higher. 8 --o0o-- 9 POPULATION STUDIES SECTION MANAGER WELLER: A 10 group of university and national laboratory scientists 11 project major increases in the frequency, length and 12 intensity of heat waves for several California cities due 13 to climate change. They assumed an idealized situation in 14 each situation for people to become acclimated to heat 15 over the course of a summer or during a heat wave. 16 However, population growth and possible public 17 intervention programs were not accounted for. 18 For an optimistic future, where clean energy 19 technologies cause emissions to peak in 2050 and decline 20 below current levels by 2100, most cities are projected to 21 see a two to threefold increase in the number of 22 heat-related deaths from the 1990's to the 2090's. For 23 the business-as-usual situation, which results in higher 24 emissions, the deaths double. 25 The coastal communities of Los Angeles and San PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 11 1 Francisco are most affected because the generally cool 2 conditions and the infrequent nature of heat waves make 3 acclimation to hot weather more unlikely than in places 4 like Fresno. 5 These mortality estimates do not include the 6 effect of increased temperature on air pollution. In a 7 recent study Columbia University and the NASA scientists 8 projected a 4.5 percent increase in ozone-related 9 mortality in the New York metropolitan area for the 10 2050's, under a high emissions scenario from greenhouse 11 gases. 12 Heat waves are a particularly dangerous event for 13 the elderly, in part because they are more prone to 14 dehydration. Increased use of air-conditioners and early 15 warning systems will help alleviate the impact of heat 16 waves. But death's are still seen in cities with a high 17 percentage of air-conditioned homes. 18 --o0o-- 19 POPULATION STUDIES SECTION MANAGER WELLER: The 20 rate of asthma in the U.S. has increased two to threefold 21 since the 1980's. And the single greatest cause of 22 hospitalization for young children is asthma. 23 There are genetic and environmental contributors 24 to asthma onset. And the causes of the asthma increase 25 are not known. However, climate change can have a PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 12 1 negative impact on those with existing asthma, as 2 increases in allergens, air pollution and smoke affect 3 asthmatics more than the general population. 4 --o0o-- 5 POPULATION STUDIES SECTION MANAGER WELLER: 6 Allergic diseases affect 17 percent of the U.S. 7 population, and are the sixth leading cause of chronic 8 illness. Drought conditions from climate change may favor 9 the increased colonization by weeds of open areas. 10 Experiments have shown that ragweed pollen production is 11 increased when plants are grown in an atmosphere that is 12 two times greater in carbon dioxide than the present. 13 Other experiments have shown that ragweed grown in 14 conditions that simulate an early spring have more flowers 15 and produce more pollen. 16 Ragweed is a very common allergen, often found in 17 open fields in the eastern U.S. Although there is a 18 variety of ragweed called Western Ragweed found in the 19 eastern part of California. Experiments with the 20 allergenic Western Ragweed grown under increased 21 temperature found an increase in pollen production with 22 warmer temperatures. 23 --o0o-- 24 POPULATION STUDIES SECTION MANAGER WELLER: 25 Climate affects the geographical range of PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 13 1 infectious diseases. For example, mosquitos, which carry 2 a number of infectious diseases, are highly sensitive to 3 temperature. And warmer global temperatures will allow 4 the expansion of both the insect itself an the diseases 5 that it carries. 6 One example of how climate may have played a role 7 in the spread of disease is the West Nile Virus, since 8 droughts seem to be a common weather pattern associated 9 with large outbreaks of this virus. This disease affects 10 the human population, but also causes a dramatic decline 11 in birds of prey, which in turn will affect the rodent 12 population and increase the spread of infectious disease. 13 California, Arizona and Colorado account for the 14 majority of all human cases of the mosquito-carried West 15 Nile Virus calculated through August, although the 16 mosquito season extends to October. 17 As of mid-September of this year about one-third 18 of all deaths from this virus in the U.S. occurred in 19 California. 20 --o0o-- 21 POPULATION STUDIES SECTION MANAGER WELLER: Poor 22 and minority populations may be at greater risk from the 23 effects of climate change. Heat waves pose a greater 24 mortality risk for the poor due to the lack of 25 air-conditioning and other resources. The majority of PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 14 1 those affected during the 1995 heat wave in Chicago were 2 African Americans living in substandard housing. 3 The poor and minority groups are also at a 4 greater risk from asthma attacks. Low-income families and 5 African Americans have higher rates of asthma prevalence 6 and increased morbidity and mortality from asthma. As we 7 have seen, asthmatics may be more sensitive to the effects 8 of climate change than the rest of the population. 9 --o0o-- 10 POPULATION STUDIES SECTION MANAGER WELLER: 11 Increased greenhouse gas emissions lead to not 12 only higher average temperatures but also increased 13 frequency of extreme conditions such as heat waves and 14 droughts. Scientists project increases of thousands of 15 heat-wave-related deaths over the next century for 16 Californians. Harvard scientists conclude that climate 17 change will lead to increased impacts on asthmatics and 18 will lead to increases in allergens an infectious disease. 19 As climate change continues, increased stress will be 20 placed on the ecosystem and the human population. And the 21 most sensitive, including low-income and minority 22 communities, will be less able to adapt. 23 Thank you for your attention. And I'll be glad 24 to answer any questions. 25 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Thank you very much. PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 15 1 My colleagues have any questions? 2 Dr. Gong. 3 BOARD MEMBER GONG: I just wanted to thank you 4 very much for that excellent summary. 5 I just have a commentary I guess, that I always 6 like to: What message are you trying to give us here? 7 And I think the message very plainly is that there are 8 health effects from green gas house -- green gas 9 emissions. And basically the health effects are both in 10 terms of symptoms, illnesses and deaths. I think that's 11 the bottom line of your message. 12 Two other sub-comments is that one thing I always 13 learned is that I always learn something from what other 14 people tell me. And I think the fact that pollen growth 15 seems to be stimulated by increased CO2 is of concern to 16 me as a physician, respiratory physician, and also a 17 public health person in the sense that this probably is 18 the fertile soil for increasing and worsening asthma 19 wherever these pollen may be around. 20 I think you centered on ragweed. But I think it 21 could also be generalized perhaps to other allergens, 22 plant allergens that may also be proliferating as a result 23 of the CO2 emissions. I don't have evidence of that 24 offhand. But if it happens for ragweed, it probably can 25 happen for other allergens as well. PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 16 1 And, lastly, the environmental justice aspect I 2 think is very important to this concept of greenhouse gas 3 emissions. And I think we'll probably get into that more 4 later. 5 Thank you. 6 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Thank you, Dr. Gong. And, 7 again, it's great to have an M.D. comment really with 8 in-depth knowledge of these issues. So thank you for your 9 insightful comments. 10 Ms. D'Adamo. 11 BOARD MEMBER D'ADAMO: Yes. On slide 7, the case 12 study: West Nile Virus, just a question. I don't know if 13 you'd have this information. Perhaps someone else in the 14 audience does as they come forward on the regulation. But 15 I'm assuming that with the increased case of West Nile 16 Virus that we're also seeing an increase in the spray 17 program for in mosquito abatement districts. And that is 18 a concern to me and to many in the public, in that people 19 don't like their communities to be sprayed unless it's 20 absolutely necessary. Clearly in this case it's going to 21 be absolutely necessary as those numbers increase. 22 POPULATION STUDIES SECTION MANAGER WELLER: I 23 actually don't have information on the spray program. I 24 do know that there has been a tremendous program for 25 trying to increase immunizations such as equine PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 17 1 immunizations, because this is a devastating disease, as I 2 say, not only in the human population but in a number of 3 animal populations and bird populations, and horses are 4 particularly hit by this. So I know that there is a 5 program for that. But I don't have the information on the 6 spray program. 7 EXECUTIVE OFFICER WITHERSPOON: Ms. D'Adamo, 8 there have been emergency appropriations to increase the 9 budgets of infectious disease parties. And we can check 10 during the break on some of the latest news about that. 11 But you're quite right, there is more spraying 12 going on than in previous years to combat the West Nile 13 Virus. 14 BOARD MEMBER D'ADAMO: Thank you. 15 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Other comments from the 16 Board? 17 Thank you very much indeed. 18 Thank you, staff. 19 Now move on to the next agenda item, 04-8-3, a 20 presentation from Dr. Benjamin Santer from the Lawrence 21 Livermore National Lab. 22 Dr. Santer will discuss his work that has been 23 highly regarded by the scientific community with respect 24 to the better understanding of the relationship between 25 human activities and public health. PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 18 1 Dr. Santer's credentials on this topic of 2 subjecting climate change theories to rigorous statistical 3 analysis are exceptional, as we will hear. Further, his 4 expertise and insight contributed to the historic 5 conclusion by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 6 Change in its 1995 report human activities are impacting 7 climate change. 8 I believe Dr. Santer's observations will provide 9 insights that we will find helpful with respect to the 10 climate change regulatory item that we will consider next. 11 With that I'll turn this over to Ms. Witherspoon. 12 EXECUTIVE OFFICER WITHERSPOON: Thank you, Dr. 13 Lloyd. 14 As a prelude to the staff proposal for regulating 15 greenhouse gases from motor vehicles we've invited a 16 renowned scientist to provide his perspective on the state 17 of the science with respect to climate change. 18 Dr. Benjamin is a physicist and atmospheric 19 scientist with the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 20 program for climate model diagnosis and intercomparison. 21 Dr. Santer holds a doctorate in climatology from the 22 University of Anglia in England. I hope I said that 23 right. His awards include a MacArthur Fellowship in the 24 Department of Energy's E.O. Lawrence Award. His recent 25 work indicates that observed changes in the lower PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 19 1 atmosphere are largely driven by human activities. 2 With that, I'm very pleased to introduce Dr. 3 Santer. 4 DR. SANTER: Thank you very much. 5 Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you 6 for giving me the opportunity to brief you about the 7 science of climate change. 8 (Thereupon an overhead presentation was 9 Presented as follows.) 10 DR. SANTER: Before I start out I just want to 11 give the punch line up front: Climate change is real. 12 It's incontrovertible that we have changed the chemical 13 composition of the atmosphere. We know that. The issue 14 of scientific debate is not whether humans have affected 15 climate. Rather it's by how much we are affecting 16 climate. 17 Next slide please. 18 --o0o-- 19 DR. SANTER: I've been involved with the 20 so-called Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or 21 IPCC, for a number of years. The IPCC was set up by the 22 World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations 23 Environment Program in 1988. And its role was to advise 24 the governments of the world what we know and what we 25 don't know about the nature and causes of climate change. PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 20 1 Back in 1996, in the second assessment report of 2 the IPCC we came to the considered conclusion that the 3 balance of the scientific evidence suggests a discernible 4 human influence on global climate. That's a, we thought, 5 rather cautious statement. It generated a lot of healthy 6 ripples in the ponds of science, politics, public opinion. 7 More recently, in 2001, in the third assessment 8 of the IPCC, they came up with an even stronger statement, 9 that there is new and stronger evidence that most of the 10 warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to 11 human activities. 12 My job today is to give you some sense of the 13 scientific underpinning of those conclusions. 14 Next slide please. 15 --o0o-- 16 DR. SANTER: Well, first of all, a brief primer 17 about the factors that can influence climate, both natural 18 and human. It's important to get across the point that 19 climate would change even if there were no humans on the 20 planet. 21 There are purely natural factors that influence 22 climate: 23 Changes in the sun's energy output on time scales 24 of 11 years, 22 years, even longer than that. 25 Then there are changes in the amount of volcanic PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 21 1 dust in the atmosphere after massive volcanic eruptions. 2 This, for example, a satellite imagery of the eruption of 3 Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines in June 1991. And we know 4 very well that after these big eruptions that get dust 5 into the upper atmosphere, you can have climate effects 6 that last several years or even longer. 7 Then there are purely natural modes of 8 variability like El Nino, which we know and love here in 9 California. You can think of these as -- well, think of a 10 bell. A bell rings or oscillates in a certain way. The 11 climate system has preferred ways in which it likes to 12 ring too. El Nino is one of them. And, as we know, it 13 can have very large impacts on temperature and rainfall, 14 not only here in California but throughout the world. 15 So these are purely natural things that affect 16 climate on a range of different time scales. And the 17 trick is to try and identify human-induced changes in 18 climate against the background noise that these natural 19 phenomena generate. 20 Next slide please. 21 --o0o-- 22 DR. SANTER: Then there are things that we do to 23 modify the chemical composition of the atmosphere. You've 24 probably all seen this curve. It's been referred to by a 25 number of people as the most famous curve in the history PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 22 1 of science. What it shows in the orange are direct 2 measurements of atmospheric CO2 levels at the Mauna Loa 3 Observatory that have been made since 1958. 4 Going further back in time we actually try and 5 infer levels of atmospheric CO2 by studying bubble of air 6 trapped in glacial ice. 7 And from these direct measurements and from these 8 more indirect measurements, scientists are in general 9 agreement that levels of atmospheric CO2 have increased by 10 about a third over the last century and a half or so. And 11 carbon dioxide is an important greenhouse gas with 12 well-understood heat trapping properties. 13 Then there are other things that we do to modify 14 the chemistry of the atmosphere. We produce aerosol 15 particles from burning fossil fuels and biomass. These 16 are not figments of some mad scientist's imagination. You 17 can see these things again in satellite imagery. These, 18 for example, are smoke -- the smoke and aerosols from 19 forest fires in Oregon in the summer of 2002. 20 We also modified the surface of the earth. This 21 shows you logging tracks, logging roads in Rondonia in 22 Brazil in the rain forests. And, again, you can see these 23 things from space. We have modified in a large way the 24 properties of the earth's surface. That affects things 25 like the amount of sunlight that's absorbed or reflected PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 23 1 by the earth's surface, evapotranspiration, release of 2 moisture from the surface. So, again, this is another 3 thing that we do to at least locally change climate. 4 Next slide please. 5 --o0o-- 6 DR. SANTER: Well, why should we care about all 7 of this stuff? Why does this matter to us? 8 This gives you the answer to that question. 9 These are projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on 10 Climate Change made in 2001 of plausible changes in the 11 earth's surface temperature over the next hundred years. 12 And what you see is a range of uncertainty here. And this 13 range of uncertainty is dictated by two things: 14 First of all, it's dictated by inherent 15 uncertainties in the computer models that were used to 16 make these projections. It's driven by uncertainties in 17 the emissions pathways that we're going to follow. Some 18 are, more or less, business-as-usual pathways. Others 19 assume some emissions reductions over time. 20 The important thing to note here is that even at 21 the low end of the range here we're talking about fairly 22 substantial projected increases in the average temperature 23 of the earth, of order of one and a half to two degrees. 24 At the upper end, those changes are higher, up to nearly 25 six degrees. So it really does behoove us to try and PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 24 1 understand these changes as best as we can. 2 Next slide please. 3 --o0o-- 4 DR. SANTER: This is from our colleagues at the 5 MIT joint program on the science and policy of climate 6 change. And for those of you who watch Wheel of 7 Fortunate, you might call this the Wheel of Misfortune I 8 suppose. But it's a nice way to get across the point that 9 we're performing an experiment, a grand geophysical 10 experiment. And we don't have a control. Unlike, you 11 know, Dr. Gong, when you perform experiments in medicine, 12 you have a control. We have no control here. There's no 13 parallel earth on which we're not disturbing greenhouse 14 gas concentrations. 15 What you see here are projected changes in one 16 climate model where you perturb uncertain physical 17 parameters in the model and you also perturb uncertain 18 inputs about future emissions' pathways. And this shows 19 you the projected temperature changes in this model world 20 from 1990 to 2100. And each slice of the pie is 21 proportional to the probability of a certain change 22 occurring. 23 So you can see that there's a small but non-zero 24 probability of a very large temperature change in this 25 model. And a very large probability of changes between 4 PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 25 1 degrees Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius. 2 The important thing to note is there is no 3 present day on this wheel. The status quo is not there. 4 We are changing climate. And by 2100 we will be somewhere 5 here on the wheel. We don't know where. But we will not 6 be at the present day. 7 Next slide please. 8 --o0o-- 9 DR. SANTER: Well, now my job is to give you some 10 of the scientific evidence that led to the IPCC's 11 discernible human influence conclusions. And it's 12 important to partition the different types of evidence. 13 Some evidence is purely qualitative. For 14 example, if you look at glaciers, we know that worldwide 15 there's been a fairly pervasive retreat of glaciers over 16 the last century or so. You can see here in California 17 the glacier has retreated by roughly 50 percent over this 18 time period. And in Argentina, in some of the ice caps 19 there, you can see even much larger changes in glacial 20 ice. So this is kind of qualitative evidence that 21 something is really happening. The earth surface is 22 warming, glaciers are retreating, sea level is rising. 23 But we're not interested in purely qualitative 24 comparisons, say, of models and data. We want to look at 25 quantitative comparisons. PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 26 1 Next slide please. 2 --o0o-- 3 DR. SANTER: It turns out that climate models 4 offer very powerful tools for studying cause/effect 5 relationships. You know, it would be very nice if we 6 could go back to some period in geological history and 7 say, "Uh-huh, this is an exact analog for the changes 8 we're going to experience over the next century." 9 Unfortunately there ain't no such beast. So what we use 10 are computer models of the climate system to try and 11 understand the changes that might be coming down the 12 pipeline. 13 Now, the beauty of these models is that you can 14 perform controlled experiments within them. You can vary 15 only one thing at a time. What you see here are 16 model-projected changes in temperature from the earth's 17 surface right up into the stratosphere and from the North 18 Pole to the South Pole. And you can see that these yellow 19 to red colors indicate a temperature increase, mean colors 20 indicate a temperature decrease. 21 And the important thing to note here without 22 getting into the details is the different mechanisms that 23 influence climate: The sun, volcanoes, ozone depletion, 24 increases in greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols. Each of 25 those has a different characteristic fingerprint or PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 27 1 pattern of temperature response in the free atmosphere. 2 So what we try and do is exploit this kind of 3 information to disentangle observed climate records and 4 figure out how much each one of these influences has 5 contributed to observed climate change. 6 Next slide please. 7 --o0o-- 8 DR. SANTER: One thing that I've been looking at 9 and my colleagues at Lawrence Livermore over the last 10 three or four years is the increase in the height of the 11 tropopause. Now, about a century ago or so people thought 12 that when you went higher and higher up from the earth's 13 surface, temperature would just decrease with increasing 14 elevation. It would just get continuously colder. Then 15 we sent up the first weather balloons and found out that 16 that wasn't the case. And in part because of the heating 17 of the atmosphere by ozone when you got above the 18 tropopause, temperatures started to increase with 19 increasing elevation. 20 Here you can actually see the tropopause in the 21 tropics and how big thunderstorm anvil clouds flatten 22 against the tropopause here in the tropics. 23 What we've done is studied the tropopause and 24 tried to see whether it provides us information about the 25 causes of climate change. PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 28 1 Next slide please. 2 --o0o-- 3 DR. SANTER: Here are results from model 4 calculations and observations of changes in the height of 5 the tropopause. First of all, if you look at the black 6 line, it shows that over the last 40 years or so the 7 increase -- the tropopause has increased in height -- that 8 corresponds to a decrease in the pressure of the 9 tropopause -- by several hundred meters or so. 10 Then we performed model calculations -- I'd like 11 to call them everything-and-the-kitchen-sink 12 calculations -- where you drive a computer model with your 13 best estimates of observed changes in greenhouse gases, 14 ozone, aerosols; and natural factors, the sun and 15 volcanoes. 16 And you can perform that experiment many times, 17 starting from different possible initial conditions of the 18 climate system back in the 1850 or so, and you get an 19 envelope of solutions. That's what this orange envelope 20 indicates here. And that essentially the envelope arises 21 from the chaotic variability of the climate system. And 22 the red line is the average over a number of different 23 realizations of this everything-and-the-kitchen-sink 24 experiment. 25 And you can see that in the model world, when you PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 29 1 drive the model by the best estimates of combined natural 2 and human forcings, you can actually replicate fairly well 3 this increase in the height of the tropopause. But when 4 you vary only the natural factors, only the sun and 5 volcanoes, you can't explain this rapid increase in the 6 height of the tropopause. 7 Now, what we do is actually much more 8 sophisticated than that. We don't just look at global 9 mean time series. We look at full patterns of change, in 10 observations, in models, and essentially do signal 11 processing to try and extract the anthropogenic, or human 12 caused, climate change from this natural noise. But here 13 you can see pretty clearly even without doing any fancy 14 statistics that in this model natural effects only 15 cannot -- repeat -- cannot explain that kind of change. 16 Next slide please. 17 --o0o-- 18 DR. SANTER: Well, you might say, "Climate 19 models, I don't believe in them. People never test them, 20 never compare them with observations." That's not the 21 case. The place that I work at, the Program for Climate 22 Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison at Lawrence Livermore 23 Lab essentially has the job of looking at all the world's 24 climate models and holding them up against the light, 25 trying to evaluate them, trying to identify their PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 30 1 systematic errors and improve them. This is one kind of 2 test of climate models that we do. 3 Volcanoes offer natural experiments, if you will. 4 We know from observations -- that's the blue line here, 5 satellite-based measurements of temperatures in the lower 6 atmosphere -- that after massive eruptions like Pinatubo 7 in 1991 or El Chichn in 1982 the atmosphere cools and 8 then there's this slow recovery thereafter. 9 Now, the black line is a model calculation where 10 all you're driving the model with is satellite-based 11 estimates of the aerosol clouds that arose from those 12 volcanic eruptions. And you can see that the model 13 actually does a very good job in reproducing the rapid 14 cooling after the Pinatubo eruption and the slow recovery 15 thereafter. This is actually a rather challenging test, 16 because in order to get this slow recovery right you have 17 to get the ocean right and have to get how the ocean takes 18 up heat from the atmosphere. It's actually quite a 19 difficult test. 20 Next slide please. 21 --o0o-- 22 DR. SANTER: Well, I'm pretty sure that if you 23 open up your paper every couple of months or so, you'll 24 see something like this. And it's been one of the major 25 arguments that critics of climate change science have PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 31 1 advanced. They've argued that satellite-based 2 measurements of temperatures in the lower atmosphere show 3 little or no warming over the last 25 years. We've been 4 measuring temperatures in the atmosphere by satellite 5 since about 1979. This is typical of that, a statement by 6 James Schlesinger made about seven or eight months ago or 7 so. And it suggests that the satellite measurements show 8 no warming and that this is an essential part of the 9 global warming theory. 10 Next slide please. 11 --o0o-- 12 DR. SANTER: Well, it turns out that it's 13 actually a tremendously difficult job to monitor 14 atmospheric temperatures from space. We did not design 15 satellites to monitor climate. We designed them to 16 monitor weather, short-term changes, but not long-term 17 changes in climate. 18 And actually the satellite record is not a record 19 from one satellite, but it's a record from 12 plus 20 satellites. These things drift. They drift in their 21 orbits. They drift in the time of day at which they see 22 earth and earth's temperature. It's very difficult to 23 splice together an homogenous record of atmospheric 24 temperatures from these satellites. 25 Up to very recently only one group, at the PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 32 1 University of Alabama at Huntsville, had attempted this 2 task of splicing together temperature records from 3 individual satellites. And their estimate was no change 4 in atmospheric temperatures over the last 25 years or so. 5 Recently another group here in California at the 6 Ramon Sensing Systems in Santa Rosa has independently 7 reanalyzed exactly the same data, and they've come up with 8 a rather different result. Now, actually a third group 9 shows a different result still with warming that's larger 10 than the Santa Rosa group here. 11 The message from this is there is uncertainty in 12 our satellite-based measurements of atmospheric 13 temperature even over nominally the best observed period 14 in earth's history. And just looking at one record alone 15 or one group's analysis of this data is dangerous. That's 16 not the way we work in science. Science, we build 17 confidence in the reality of the result by having multiple 18 groups involved in the analysis of the same data. 19 So the message here is that if somebody tells you 20 these satellite measurements are some monolithic thing 21 that indicate little or no warming of the atmosphere, 22 scientifically it's much more complex than that. 23 Next please. 24 --o0o-- 25 DR. SANTER: Another area of progress is that we PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 33 1 are now performing climate model calculations at very high 2 resolution. When you perform such calculations you 3 essentially divide the surface of the earth up into a 4 grid. Until recently, we were performing model 5 calculations with a horizontal resolution of roughly 300 6 by 300 kilometers. You can see that California is not 7 represented by very many model grid boxes at that kind of 8 resolution. 9 This is actually wintertime precipitation in 10 California and the Western U.S. And it shows -- here are 11 observations that show the Central Valley and the 12 increased wintertime precipitation over the Sierras. And 13 you can see that as you increase the resolution at which 14 you perform the model calculations, you get a much better 15 representation of this kind of fine scale precipitation 16 structure. So this is really encouraging for many of us 17 who work with climate models, that we're now capable of 18 performing climate change experiments at these very high 19 resolutions and hopefully able to make much more 20 meaningful projections of regional scale climate change. 21 Next. 22 --o0o-- 23 DR. SANTER: Well, why is regional scale climate 24 change important? It's important because we experience 25 regional climate. The things that we're going to react to PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 34 1 are the things that have already been mentioned this 2 morning: Changes in the frequency and the intensity of 3 extreme events. We don't particularly care all that much 4 about whether the global mean temperature increases by 1.8 5 or 2.5 degrees. It's the regional climate, I contend, 6 that we're going to respond to, and that ultimately will 7 drive climate-related policy decisions. And here in 8 California we're particularly concerned about the regional 9 manifestations of climate change. One general theme 10 emerging from model calculations is that they predict a 11 change in the seasonality of runoff, with more of the 12 runoff coming earlier in the year when we actually need it 13 less. That would have huge implications for water 14 resources, hydropower, agriculture. And it's those kind 15 of changes in regional scale of changes in climate that we 16 really need to address and understand. 17 Next slide please. 18 --o0o-- 19 DR. SANTER: Well, I hope I've showed you that 20 there's no debate: Human activities have changed the 21 chemical composition of the atmosphere. And we believe 22 scientifically that the climate system is telling us an 23 internally consistent story. If you read a book, when you 24 reach the end of the book, you ask, "Have all the story 25 lines been woven together in a satisfying way?" PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 35 1 And in the climate change story the answer is 2 "yes". Sea level has increased. We know that there have 3 been changes in the earth's surface temperature. The 4 Stratosphere has cooled. The Troposphere has warmed. 5 Glaciers have retreated. These are all internally 6 consistent threads, story lines, if you will. 7 I think that, finally, we do particularly in 8 California need to improve our ability to predict regional 9 scale changes that will most closely and intimately 10 influence us here in virtually every endeavor: Health, 11 energy, water resources. That's what we need to 12 understand. 13 Finally, just on a personal note, it's 14 encouraging to me that California is actually taking a 15 leadership role in addressing these issues. I'm very 16 encouraged as a private citizen by that. 17 Thank you very much. 18 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Thank you very much, Dr. 19 Santer, for that excellent presentation, summarizing the 20 take of science and knowledge there. 21 Before I open to my colleagues on the Board, I'd 22 like to ask just one question. As we move from 1995 when 23 you participated in the IPCC, and you're continuing that 24 participation, what changes do you expect as we look, you 25 know, ten years hence to the future IPCC and upcoming PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 36 1 ones? 2 DR. SANTER: Well, the fourth assessment report 3 of the IPCC is slated to be published in 2007. And I 4 think what we're seeing is a shift in the focus of the 5 debate. In the first couple of IPCC reports, in 1990 and 6 1996, the debate was fundamentally about the science: Is 7 the science credible? Is it telling us a story that we 8 can believe? 9 I think the debate is now shifting to "What 10 should we do about it?" And I think that in 2007, the 11 debate will focus much more on potential impacts of 12 climate change and rather less on the credibility of the 13 underlying science. 14 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Do you have an idea from the 15 scientific community, and look globally -- and I know 16 you've traveled internationally -- in terms of the 17 international scientists, so what percentage do you feel 18 agree with your comments on this issue? 19 DR. SANTER: Well, there are a couple of ways of 20 addressing that question. The first is to note that the 21 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is truly a 22 unique exercise involving thousands, quite literally 23 thousands of climate change scientists from countries 24 around the world. And the level of peer review and 25 government review that goes into these reports is PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 37 1 extraordinary. There's very little parallel to this in 2 any other scientific endeavor that I can think of. 3 The other point to note is that independent of 4 IPCC conclusions, this country has on numerous occasions 5 asked its most august body, the National Academy of 6 Sciences, to come up with an independent assessment of the 7 credibility of the science. And without fail, the U.S. 8 National Academy has said this is a real problem that 9 we're going to have to address. 10 There are still people out there who would 11 probably dispute even the most basic conclusions that 12 humans have had any influence whatsoever on the 13 atmosphere. That's a -- I would contend that that's a 14 minority view. 15 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Thank you. And again it's 16 wonderful to have you working here in California on this 17 issue. 18 And my colleagues on the Board, any questions? 19 BOARD MEMBER RIORDAN: Excellent report. 20 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Dr. Gong. 21 BOARD MEMBER GONG: Could you enlighten me a 22 little bit about the interaction between the ocean and the 23 atmosphere in terms of global warming. I guess where I'm 24 heading towards is: With the change in global 25 temperature, is there also an effect on development or PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 38 1 frequency of hurricanes or tropical storms, things like 2 that? I mean I read something about it and I don't quite 3 understand that. 4 DR. SANTER: Well, good question, particularly 5 given the current situation in Florida and the Caribbean. 6 And I wish I could give you a compelling answer or a 7 reliable answer to that question. 8 I guess the best answer is we don't know at the 9 moment. We know that in -- in observations the intensity 10 and frequency of hurricanes is influenced by things like 11 El Nino, which conditions sea surface temperatures and 12 regions where these things are formed. It's influenced 13 not only by sea surface temperatures, but also by wind 14 shear, what happens to winds in the upper atmosphere and 15 how they can act to sort of give hurricanes and tropical 16 storms the conditions that they need in order to 17 propagate. And it's unclear how these things will change. 18 I should add that climate models until recently 19 haven't had the horizontal resolution to be able to 20 faithfully represent hurricanes and tropical storms. But 21 as I indicated, that is now changing. And we are getting 22 models that can actually simulate the development and 23 movement of tropical storms in hurricanes. And those will 24 provide us with much better tools to address questions 25 about possible changes in the frequency and intensity of PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 39 1 hurricanes and tropical storms. 2 But it is clear, just to get back to the 3 beginning of your question, that the ocean plays a major 4 role in all of this. If you put your foot on the pedal of 5 your accelerator, then you don't immediately reach the 6 final speed. Your car takes some time to reach that final 7 speed that you've committed it to. And it's the same in 8 the climate world. We've committed ourselves to a certain 9 warming 100 years down the road even if we stopped 10 emissions of greenhouse gases tomorrow. And that 11 commitment, that inertia, it's just like in the car 12 analogy, comes from the ocean. The ocean has a huge 13 capacity to store heat. And that's part of the problem 14 really that -- as I said, even if we stopped emissions of 15 greenhouse gases tomorrow, we've still committed ourselves 16 to an unrealized warming decades down the road. 17 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Thank you. 18 Other questions? 19 Ms. Berg. 20 BOARD MEMBER BERG: When we're looking at the 21 studies and we're looking at 100 and 150 years in data, 22 could you kind of comment on how that warming compares to 23 the age of the earth, which is tens of thousands of years 24 old, and how we kind of reconcile the different ages, of 25 the ice age and different heat ages, versus what we're PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 40 1 going through now. 2 DR. SANTER: Yeah, that's a good question. 3 As I mentioned at the outset, climate changes on 4 a variety of time scales. There was the long time scales, 5 ice-age time scales of a hundred thousand years and 6 longer, and then there are these very short time scales 7 that we're looking at now, what's going to happen over the 8 next few decades or next century. 9 We think we understand reasonably well what 10 happens on these long time scales. There are changes in 11 the amount of sunlight that the earth receives to do 12 perturbations in the earth's orbit. And those things 13 affect climate variability on these long time scales. 14 We think we understand from looking at indirect 15 reporters of climate: Tree rings, ice cores, sediment 16 records, those enable us to peer back in time before the 17 last 150 years of direct instrumental measurements. And 18 those indirect recorders, we call them proxy records, tell 19 us that the current period is unusual in the context of 20 our best understanding of the past 2 to 10,000 years or 21 so. 22 So, you know, the paleo-perspective is one of the 23 drivers behind the concern here, because it does seem like 24 the 20th century is unusual in the context of everything 25 we understand about the past. PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 41 1 BOARD MEMBER BERG: Thank you. 2 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Thank you very much. 3 Ms. D'Adamo. 4 BOARD MEMBER D'ADAMO: Yes. The previous 5 presentation focused on public health impacts related to 6 global climate change. And I was wondering if you or if 7 the research staff could comment on other impacts, 8 specific to California, in particular, impact on municipal 9 and agricultural water supply related to the snow pack 10 issue and, in turn, the issue of impacts on water quality, 11 healthy oceans and rivers and how that impacts perhaps the 12 fisheries industry and then also the agricultural 13 industry. 14 I read an interesting study that came out I 15 believe within the last couple of weeks regarding 16 agricultural impacts that focused on the wine grape 17 industry. And I've heard that also that global climate 18 change can impact other agricultural commodities such as 19 dairy production and that sort of thing. 20 And then also just curious about if there's any 21 research that's been done on the impact of climate change 22 on forest health and on the forest products industry. 23 DR. SANTER: Well -- 24 BOARD MEMBER D'ADAMO: It's a long list. But 25 whatever you could comment on. And if Research staff has PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 42 1 anything to add to that, I'd be curious as well. 2 Thank you. 3 DR. SANTER: Thanks for the question. I'm sure 4 that Research staff could answer that more competently 5 than I could. I'm not a specialist in impacts of climate 6 change on agriculture, energy, et cetera. 7 But it is clear from looking at model projections 8 that one robust result -- I mentioned this previously -- 9 is a change in the timing of runoff. And this arises in 10 the following way: Most of these models predict warming 11 of the Western U.S. and California. And that warming 12 leads to earlier melt of snow pack. And that means that 13 we get more water delivered earlier in the year when 14 agriculture needs it less than later in the year. And 15 that is a real concern and likely would have tremendous 16 implications for agriculture throughout the state of 17 California. 18 These other areas, forests, health, water 19 quality, I'm not really competent to answer. But the one 20 I'm -- or the two I'm most concerned about, given my 21 knowledge of climate model projections, are water 22 resources and changes in the frequency and intensity of 23 heat stress. And that mentioned too. You know, one of 24 the things we're doing is we're changing the probabilities 25 of these extreme events. We're not just changing mean PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 43 1 temperatures. When you've changed mean temperatures, 2 you've changed the probability distributions of these 3 extreme events, like extended heat stress periods. And 4 those things worry me, particularly given Europe's 5 experience in 2003. 6 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Bart. 7 RESEARCH DIVISION CHIEF CROES: Bart Croes with 8 Research Division at ARB. 9 Just to add on to Dr. Santer's comments. A 10 recent report by a number of investigators that was 11 reported in the proceedings of National Academy of 12 Sciences predicts sea level rise over the next century on 13 the order of two to three feet. So obviously that will 14 have implications on water quality because of salt water 15 intrusion into the Delta. And I don't think the present 16 levees system could support that type of sea level rise. 17 There's potentially other effects on agriculture. 18 You know, the reduction in dairy production that was 19 predicted by the same study on the order of 10 to 20 20 percent with increasity may extend to, you know, reduction 21 in -- or effects on other animal groups like poultry or 22 beef cattle. And certainly the reduced water availability 23 would impact irrigation and crops. So we'll go over it 24 later in the presentation for 1493, some of the other 25 impacts. PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 44 1 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Supervisor DeSaulnier. 2 BOARD MEMBER DeSAULNIER: I think you may have 3 partially answered what I was going to ask. I was going 4 to ask the near-term consequences for the Delta. Just in 5 the last six months we had a levee fail in San Joaquin 6 County. So are you going to cover that in the staff 7 presentation? Or, Doctor, if you would like to comment on 8 that. 9 RESEARCH DIVISION CHIEF CROES: In the staff 10 presentation we'll cover sea level rise. 11 BOARD MEMBER DeSAULNIER: Doctor, do you have any 12 on the impact on the Delta in the near term? 13 DR. SANTER: No. Again, sea level rise is 14 something that we think we understand reasonably well. It 15 comes primarily from two effects: One is that as you warm 16 sea water, it expands. That's one contribution to sea 17 level rise. And the other is the melting of glaciers, ice 18 sheets, and we understand that contribution pretty well 19 too. 20 The big wild card in this picture is what's going 21 to happen to some of these massive ice sheets like the 22 Greenland ice sheet and how they will behave over the next 23 century or so and whether they could indeed do things very 24 rapidly that could change sea level very rapidly. 25 BOARD MEMBER DeSAULNIER: Thank you. Thank you PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 45 1 for your presentation. 2 DR. SANTER: Thank you. 3 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Thank you very much, Dr. 4 Santer. Appreciate it very much. 5 Thank you, staff. 6 We're ready to move on to the main event of 7 today's proceedings, Agenda Item 4-8-2, staff proposal to 8 control greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles? 9 As I indicated at the start of the hearing, the 10 two items the Board just heard are part of the public 11 record for this item, as will be the case for all the 12 presentations and testimony presented from this moment 13 forward. 14 As the audience is aware, the staff regulatory 15 proposal is in response to Assembly Bill 1493, authored by 16 Assemblywoman Fran Pavley in 2002, and signed into law in 17 September of that year by Governor Davis. 18 The statute directs the Air Resources Board to 19 adopt regulations that will achieve the maximum feasible 20 and cost-effective reduction in greenhouse gas emissions 21 from new motor vehicles. We must complete our work by the 22 end of this year, the end of 2004, so that the State 23 Legislature has an opportunity to review the regulation 24 before it goes into effect in 2006. 25 In the two years since the passage of AB 1493, PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 46 1 the case for action has only grown more compelling. And I 2 think we've seen evidence of that. The Board just heard a 3 summary of the recent work exploring the impacts of 4 climate change on public health. And also, as indicated, 5 last month a team of researchers published in the 6 proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences a 7 comprehensive assessment of the substantial adverse 8 impacts that climate change may have on California. And 9 these are only the latest additions to an ever-growing 10 body of evidence on climate change. 11 The new responsibility to develop greenhouse gas 12 emission standards for new motor vehicles has been a 13 particularly challenging process. The rules imposed by 14 the Legislature pertaining to greenhouse gas emissions are 15 far more comprehensive than those which govern the Board's 16 determination with respect to other vehicle emissions. 17 The staff has worked hard to meet the requirements set 18 down by Assemblywoman Pavley's legislation. Our purpose 19 here is to listen to the recommendations in the staff 20 proposal and make a decision with respect to that which we 21 recommend to the Legislature in January. 22 With respect to this particular regulation we 23 need to be mindful of two tests: The test established by 24 the legislature, to which I've referred. And there's -- 25 the importance of the test established under Section 209 PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 47 1 of the Clean Air Act with respect to the California 2 waivers. 3 It is important and appropriate that this hearing 4 first address the public health impacts of greenhouse gas 5 emissions. We must demonstrate the need for these 6 standards. In addition we must assure that our 7 determinations are not either arbitrary or capricious and 8 that our standards in enforcement procedures are not 9 inconsistent with the requirements applicable to the 10 so-called federal vehicles. 11 Staff has concluded that the proposed regulations 12 are technically feasible and economical to the consumer. 13 Nonetheless they represent a significant financial 14 challenge to the automobile industry. Our job as Board 15 members is to ensure that the proposed regulation 16 represents the best possible balance among the many 17 competing factors that must be taken into account. 18 Climate change is the single biggest 19 environmental challenge facing the world today. No single 20 party is responsible and no single action is enough to 21 address the enormous scope of the problem. 22 Yet those of us working on this issue truly are 23 in the right place at the right time. We have been asked 24 to add a new and groundbreaking chapter to California's 25 long history of environmental protection. And we've been PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 48 1 asked to do what we do best to design technically feasible 2 and cost effective controls for motor vehicles that reduce 3 their contribution to the state's greenhouse gas emission 4 inventory. 5 Obviously, California cannot solve the problem of 6 global climate change by itself. But we can certainly do 7 our share. And we are in the position to make a unique 8 contribution toward progress in the vehicular arena. 9 There are those who would argue that California's 10 contributions to the greenhouse gas problem is not 11 significant to merit the attention that the Pavley 12 legislation requires. That same argument could have been 13 made 40 years ago when California took the lead in the 14 control of automobile air pollution because California 15 only represented a small part of the market. 16 Finally, by taking this action, California will 17 join the many nations, private citizens and corporations 18 around the globe that have already made reducing 19 greenhouse gas emissions a top priority. 20 I look forward to hearing the different 21 perspectives and arguments that will be brought before us 22 as we sort through the complex issues associated with the 23 proposed regulation. 24 Again, let me acknowledge the challenge that 25 staff's proposal poses to the automotive industry. There PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 49 1 is no question that implementation of this regulation will 2 be a difficult task for each and every automaker. 3 But California has never accepted "It can't be 4 done" as an answer. And California has proven over and 5 over again that setting the right goals and giving 6 industry the right tools, enough time and sufficient 7 flexibility to meet those goals can produce extraordinary 8 results. 9 Fortunately there is an impressive record by 10 which we can gauge the industry response and the staff's 11 expectations. I am confident that the auto industry and 12 the Air Resources Board could achieve tremendous things if 13 we work together on the climate change issue. The stakes 14 are high, as we've seen today, stakes for public health, 15 for other aspects of California's economy. And clearly 16 the Board will not, as it never has, shirk its obligation 17 to protect the health of California's children. 18 With that, I'd like turn it over to Ms. 19 Witherspoon to begin staff's presentation. 20 EXECUTIVE OFFICER WITHERSPOON: Thank you, 21 Chairman Lloyd and members of the Board. 22 Staff has been hard at work since the passage of 23 AB 1493 in 2002. Our goal has been to work within the 24 general guidance provided by the bill and develop a 25 specific proposal that achieves significant emission PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 50 1 reductions while preserving the vehicle choices that 2 California consumers now enjoy. This has involved 3 significant effort by our engineering, research, emission 4 inventory and economics staff. 5 In recent months, as we move closer to the staff 6 proposal, the work has proceeded under constant scrutiny 7 by both the environmental community and the auto industry. 8 With this unusually high level of attention, I'd like to 9 express staff's appreciation for all of the hard work by 10 those following our efforts. We will not agree on every 11 issue, but it has been very helpful to have an ongoing 12 technical dialogue. 13 The staff presentation today is divided into 14 several sections. First, Mr. Chuck Shulock will provide 15 background on climate change from the California 16 perspective and the requirements of AB 1493. Then Mr. 17 Steve Albu from the Mobile Source Control Division will 18 describe the staff's technical evaluation of possible 19 greenhouse gas control technologies and the derivation of 20 the proposed emissions standards. Mr. Fereidun Feizollahi 21 from our Research Division will then summarize the staff 22 analysis of environmental and economic impacts of the 23 proposal. Mr. Shulock will return to outline the major 24 issues before you and present the staff's conclusion and 25 recommendation. PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 51 1 The overall staff presentation is approximately 2 one to two hours long, depending on the number of 3 questions from the Board. 4 And Assemblywoman Fran Pavley has arrived. And 5 so we would like to pause at this moment if she has time 6 constraints and give her an opportunity to address the 7 Board before we get into the actual staff presentation. 8 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: I got the same message at the 9 same time. 10 Do I see Assemblywoman Pavley. 11 I think that's very appropriate. Also we're 12 going to take a break for the court reporter I think 13 around 11 o'clock. 14 EXECUTIVE OFFICER WITHERSPOON: That's correct. 15 We could also pause -- we have several natural pauses in 16 the presentation for questions. And we could pause at any 17 of those moments, if the Assemblywoman is not quite here 18 yet, to take her. 19 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: I apologize. We don't have a 20 clock in this room. But we have a clock here showing 21 10:22. So if you want to calibrate your watches by that, 22 hopefully that's the same as everybody else's. But that's 23 what we're looking at. 24 Hopefully the Assemblywoman is -- and we'll be 25 taking lunch as well, a lunch time period. PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 52 1 Oh, two minutes. Okay. 2 BOARD MEMBER DeSAULNIER: Tell a joke, Alan. 3 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: I think that's your area of 4 specialty. 5 (Laughter.) 6 BOARD MEMBER DeSAULNIER: Yogi Berra. 7 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: I would say to my colleagues 8 on the Board, be careful as you roll your chairs back. So 9 if the audience sees us disappear at any one time, there's 10 a rapid drop behind us here. 11 BOARD MEMBER DeSAULNIER: I thought that was 12 deliberate. 13 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: As Chair, I have a fortunate 14 thing. I do have a refreshment table behind me, so I'm 15 prevented from going off. 16 (Laughter.) 17 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: But, again, I would -- again, 18 I'll say I think it is important, as we've indicated, to 19 seeing the importance of Assemblywoman Fran Pavley and her 20 leadership on this and many other issues. 21 And I'd also like to endorse Ms. Witherspoon's 22 comments in terms of how many people have been involved 23 and the just outstanding work by the staff dedication, on 24 tough issues. And also to thank the industry where 25 they've been able to provide us some data. PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 53 1 There was a question. The cars outside -- can 2 you comment on where they came from, et cetera? So that 3 people can take a look too in the break. 4 Well, while you're thinking of the answer, I'd 5 like to welcome -- it's a great honor to welcome 6 Assemblywoman Fran Pavley. 7 Fran, your name has been used many times this 8 morning. I must say it's been a real pleasure to have 9 worked with you on this item. I think you epitomize the 10 very best in public service in the Legislature for 11 California. We're tremendously fortunate to have you in a 12 leadership role protecting California's environment and 13 for your inspired leadership on this issue. I know it 14 wasn't easy. But your dedication, your commitment, your 15 perseverance and your toughness is just incredible. So we 16 really appreciate you coming here today. 17 And with that, thank you so much for giving us 18 the opportunity and the direction to follow what you 19 direct in your legislation. 20 Welcome. 21 ASSEMBLYWOMAN PAVLEY: Thank you very much, Mr. 22 Chairman. Very kind words coming from you. And it's been 23 a collaborative approach, as you well know. 24 And I want to congratulate the staff and the 25 Board for coming together and putting together regulations PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 54 1 that I believe met the intent of the bill when I voted 2 several years ago. You've come up with cost effective 3 maximum feasible regulations to reduce greenhouse gas 4 emissions. And I know as California leads the way on 5 this, other states will soon follow, if not countries. 6 And I have some prepared statements that I'd like to read 7 please. 8 I have reviewed the draft regulations, and I 9 think you're absolutely on track. I think we're going the 10 right direction. And I want to congratulate you, 11 especially your hard working staff, on a job well done. 12 As you are aware, California has led the way 13 before in the development of new technologies to reduce 14 emissions. I saw all that elaborate display of cars 15 outside that demonstrate off-the-shelf technologies that 16 are readily available as I drove my hybrid down to this 17 hearing today. 18 From catalytic converters to unleaded gas, we 19 have not only set the standard that is often frequently 20 copied by other states and countries, but we have and we 21 continue to drive the development of the new technology 22 necessary to meet those standards. 23 This time off-the-top-shelf technologies are 24 readily available for the first phase of implementing the 25 greenhouse gas emission regulations. Unfortunately new PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 55 1 regulations often meet the resistance, at least initially, 2 of automobile manufacturers. But the public is convinced 3 that American know-how will allow them to drive any car 4 they choose to drive, but in the future they will simply 5 be able to drive cars that operate more efficiently and 6 cleaner. Payback in increased costs will return to the 7 driver within just a few years. 8 Federal law, as you know, allows Californians to 9 set emission standards to meet the compelling and 10 extraordinary needs of this great state. People often ask 11 me: Why should California, just one state, adopt our own 12 greenhouse emission standards? There are many answers to 13 these questions. Of course it's the fifth biggest economy 14 in the world. And with a population of over 35 million 15 people, I'd like to remind people that California has more 16 people than all of Canada. We should and can do our fair 17 share to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 18 California contributes more greenhouse gas 19 emissions from mobile sources than stationary sources, so 20 we're relatively unique. 21 California is a state that is and will continue 22 to be highly impacted by climate change. Documented 23 evidence has shown the earlier melt of our Sierra snow 24 pack. And you know that affects the reliability and 25 sustainability of our water supply, not only for our PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 56 1 agricultural community, but our urban water uses as well. 2 Warmer temperatures bring more pollution to our 3 cities and our central valley. Respiratory problems 4 affecting our children and the elderly are dramatically 5 increasing. Did you know statistics show that one out of 6 every seven children in the Fresno public schools carry an 7 inhaler because of their asthma conditions? 8 California also has 1100 miles of beautiful 9 coastline, which is very susceptible to sea level rise. 10 Impacts to ecosystems, loss of property and salt water 11 intrusion into our Delta and coastal plains will increase 12 with climate change. 13 Several other states are looking closely at what 14 we do here today and tomorrow, and they are poised to 15 adopt these same regulations as well. And even Canada and 16 other countries are considering following our lead. 17 Well, you alluded to the hard fight. But I 18 wanted to bring this regulation to you that was signed 19 into law two years ago. But I wanted to recognize the 20 broad coalition and supporters who backed the passage of 21 this legislation. And also many more have come on board 22 just this year to support the adoption of these historic 23 regulations. 24 Of course environmental organizations are 25 supportive, from the Bluewater Network, Sierra Club, NRDC, PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 57 1 Coalition of Clean Air, and the list goes on and on. 2 But also health organizations, because they get 3 the link between climate change and pollution. California 4 Medical Association recently adopted a resolution, just 5 this year. Also on board is the Nurses Association and 6 the American Lung Association. 7 An interesting group of people actively support 8 these regulations. And that's religious groups in the 9 Interfaith Council. They think it's a moral 10 responsibility for California to lead the way on this 11 effort. 12 Water agencies support these regulations because 13 they understand the relationship between climate change, 14 snow pack and water availability and supply. 15 Cities and counties throughout California and 16 other states support the attempts that this Regulation 17 will make to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 18 Business groups such as E-2, a Silicon Valley 19 group of business leaders, support this bill as well as 20 the ski industry. 21 National, state, and local elected officials have 22 signed up in support. And editorial support from over ten 23 daily newspapers throughout California have supported the 24 adoption of AB 1493 as well as the regulations in front of 25 you today. PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 58 1 Some people ask me, "Well, what do average 2 Californians think about climate change and regulating 3 greenhouse gases?" A recent poll that was taken in just 4 July of this year by a nonpartisan group called the Public 5 Policy Institute of California asked the three following 6 questions: 7 Question 1 was: Do you believe the theory that 8 increased CO2 and other gases released in the atmosphere 9 will, if unchecked, lead to global warming? The response 10 among all adults, that's Democrats, Republicans and 11 independents -- 2500 Californians were polled -- came up 12 with 71 percent believed so. 13 The second question was: Do you think it is 14 necessary to take steps to counter the effects of global 15 warming right away? Over 76 percent of those polls said, 16 "Yes, right away." 17 The last question relevant to the regulations 18 here today that the FPPC or -- excuse me -- the PPIC posed 19 was: What about the state law that requires all auto 20 makers to further reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases 21 from new cars in California by 2009? Do you support or 22 oppose law?" Well, this had the strongest response. Out 23 of all adults, Republicans, Democrats and independents 24 collectively, 81 percent of those poles said "yes". And 25 in fact, interestingly enough, they asked the people, PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 59 1 "What car do you drive?" Well, the people who drove 2 SUV's, eight out of the ten said yes. 3 With that kind of support, I think we're on the 4 right track. Well, I know we're on the right track. And 5 I want again thank you, Dr. Lloyd, for your leadership. 6 The administrations, past and present, have been very 7 supportive of California leading the way in adopting these 8 historic regulations that are before you today. 9 Thank you very much for allowing me to speak. 10 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Thank you very much for 11 coming down. We appreciate it. 12 (Applause.) 13 EXECUTIVE OFFICER WITHERSPOON: And with that, 14 we'll resume with the staff presentation, starting with 15 Mr. Chuck Shulock. 16 (Thereupon an overhead presentation was 17 Presented as follows.) 18 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: Thank you. 19 Good morning, Mr. Chairman and members. 20 As Executive Officer Witherspoon mentioned, I 21 will begin our staff presentation this morning by briefly 22 covering the highlights of what you are about to hear, 23 along with some background on climate change and our rural 24 development process. Steve Albu then will discuss the 25 staff technology assessment and the standard development PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 60 1 process. Fereidun Feizollahi will describe the staff's 2 analysis of the economic and environmental impacts of the 3 staff proposal. I then will finish up with a discussion 4 of various pending issues and our conclusions and 5 recommendation. 6 We have a considerable amount of material to 7 present. We will stop along the way at the conclusion of 8 major sections to allow for questions from the Board. 9 --o0o-- 10 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: Dr. Gong, in 11 your commentary you said, "What's the message?" Well, 12 this slide is intended to give a preview of the main 13 points that we're going to provide for you today. 14 Staff has performed an in-depth evaluation of 15 vehicle technology and has identified a number of 16 technology packages that are available to reduce 17 greenhouse gas emissions. These packages can be applied 18 in a cost-effective manner without reducing vehicle 19 availability. 20 When applied to the light-duty vehicle fleet, 21 this improved technology will result in significant 22 greenhouse gas reductions, on the order of 17 percent in 23 2020 and 27 percent in 2030. The proposal will also have 24 a positive effect on smog-forming pollutants. Because the 25 vehicles using this improved technology will be cheaper to PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 61 1 operate, the proposal also will result in a net savings 2 for consumers and increased jobs and personal income for 3 the California economy. 4 --o0o-- 5 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: Keeping in 6 mind these highlights, now let's turn to the main body of 7 the staff presentation. 8 Earlier this morning, you heard presentations on 9 climate change, its causes, and its public health impacts. 10 Our presentation will build upon that information with a 11 brief overview focusing on impacts to California. 12 I then will discuss how the action before you 13 today is not a dramatic departure, but rather builds on a 14 long history of California concern over climate change on 15 the part of state agencies and the public as well. 16 --o0o-- 17 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: This slide 18 presents some key points regarding climate change science. 19 Climate change is linked to human activities. California 20 is already experiencing climate change. Climate change 21 can affect California in a variety of ways. And those 22 impacts are expected to be worse in the future. 23 --o0o-- 24 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: Since the 25 industrial revolution human activities have dramatically PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 62 1 changed the composition of the atmosphere. Combustion or 2 fossil fuels produces large amounts of carbon dioxide as 3 well as other pollutants. This slide illustrates that the 4 concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has 5 risen since pre-industrial times and is continuing to 6 increase by approximately one-half percent per year. 7 Human activities have also increased atmospheric 8 concentrations of other greenhouse gases, such as methane 9 and nitrous oxide. Over the past 100 years methane 10 concentrations have doubled, while nitrous oxide levels 11 have risen about 15 percent. 12 --o0o-- 13 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: Climate 14 change is not upon the dim horizon. It is here today. 15 The past century has already seen changes in 16 climate-related conditions such as average temperature, up 17 seven-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit; sea level, up three 18 to eight inches; spring runoff, decreased by 12 percent; 19 and snow melt and spring bloom, advanced by one to three 20 weeks. 21 --o0o-- 22 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: Spring 23 temperatures in California have increased two to three 24 degrees over the period 1950 to 1997. The peak snow melt 25 runoff has come two to three weeks earlier across the PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 63 1 western United States. In many places vegetation is 2 blooming one to three weeks earlier in the spring since 3 the mid-seventies. This early runoff can disrupt 4 California's vital water storage and delivery system, as 5 will be noted in more detail in a few minutes. 6 --o0o-- 7 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: Our rising 8 sea level has already been observed in California. As is 9 illustrated on this slide of observed sea level at San 10 Francisco, California has seen a seven inch rise in 150 11 years. The present Delta system may not be viable with an 12 additional 8 to 12 inch sea rise. 13 --o0o-- 14 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: Projected 15 climate changes may affect California in a variety of 16 ways. As you have heard this morning, climate change is 17 expected to have primarily negative consequences for 18 public health. Weather and climate can affect human 19 health both directly and indirectly. 20 Direct impacts include adverse health 21 consequences due to temperature extremes and extreme 22 weather events. 23 Indirect impacts include bet vector-borne 24 diseases such as diseases carried by mosquitoes and 25 rodents, allergic diseases, food- and water-borne PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 64 1 diseases, and air pollution related health effects. 2 Agriculture is especially vulnerable to regional 3 climate changes such as altered temperatures and rainfall 4 patterns, and new pest problems that could result from 5 climate changes. 6 Climate change would also affect forest 7 ecosystems in ways that increase fire hazards and make 8 forests more susceptible to pests and diseases. 9 Much of California is semi-arid and, thus, water 10 resources are a very important issue. Warmer temperatures 11 may result in a shift in California's water cycle from 12 winter snows to more spring rain. The Sierra snow pack, 13 that functions as the state's largest reservoir, could 14 shrink by a third by 2060 and to half its historic size by 15 2090. 16 Runoff that fills reservoirs will start in 17 mid-winter, not spring. And rain falling on snow will 18 trigger more flooding. 19 The California coast is likely to face rather 20 dramatic sea level rises that could threaten its 21 shorelines. Sea level rise and storm surges could lead to 22 flooding of low-lying property, loss of coastal wetlands, 23 erosion of cliffs and beaches, salt water contamination of 24 drinking water, and impacts on roads, causeways and 25 bridges. PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 65 1 All of these changes will undoubtedly affect 2 natural areas and habitats. 3 --o0o-- 4 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: This slide 5 shows some mechanisms by which climate change and 6 variability can affect public health. Increases in the 7 number of heat waves may cause an increase in heat-related 8 mortality, depending on the effectiveness of public health 9 interventions. Increases in the number and severity of 10 floods, draughts and wild fires could put more 11 Californians at risk. 12 In addition, California's likely to see changes 13 in the geographic distribution of diseases carried by 14 mosquitoes, as a change in climate affects the range of 15 the insects. 16 There is a direct relationship between ambient 17 air temperatures and the secondary production of ozone. 18 High temperatures, strong sunlight and a stable air mass 19 create the ideal conditions for ozone formation. Higher 20 temperatures also cause an increase in emissions. More 21 fuel evaporates, engines work harder, and the demands on 22 power plants increase. 23 Air pollution is also made worse by increases in 24 natural hydrocarbon emissions during hot weather. As the 25 temperature rises and air quality diminishes, heat-related PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 66 1 health problems also increase. 2 --o0o-- 3 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: Climate 4 change could impact California agriculture by increasing 5 the demand for irrigation to meet higher evaporative 6 demand, increasing the incidents of pests, and through 7 direct temperature effects on production, quality and 8 quantity. 9 Dairy products, that are valued at $3.8 billion 10 annually, and grapes, $3.2 billion annually are the two 11 highest value agricultural commodities in California's $30 12 billion agricultural sector. 13 Climate scientists have recently projected that 14 California will get hotter and drier by the end of the 15 century, threatening its valuable wine and dairy 16 industries. Wine-growing regions in California that are 17 currently warm could face challenges in terms of over-ripe 18 fruit, added water stress, and increases in diseases and 19 pests. 20 --o0o-- 21 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: A recent 22 study by university and federal scientists projects the 23 magnitude of potential impacts to California under 24 aggressive and business-as-usual emission control programs 25 over the next 100 years. As you've heard because CO2 and PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 67 1 other greenhouse gases persist in the atmosphere for many 2 decades, further climate change is inevitable. Even with 3 the use of aggressive control policies, this study 4 projected that average temperature will increase by 4 to 6 5 degrees Fahrenheit, sea level will rise by 8 to 11 inches, 6 and the Sierra snow pack will decrease by 29 to 72 7 percent. 8 These impacts are magnified if we stick to 9 business as usual. Temperature increase is 7 to 10 10 degrees, sea level rise is by 11 to 16 increases, and the 11 snow pack is reduced by 73 to 89 percent. 12 --o0o-- 13 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: Before 14 concluding this discussion of scientific background I'd 15 like to touch on one other aspect. Recent climate change 16 research has uncovered a disturbing feature of the earth's 17 climate system. It is capable of sudden violent shifts. 18 Climate change will not necessarily be gradual as assumed 19 in most climate change projections, but may instead 20 involve sudden jumps between very different states. 21 Researchers first became intrigued by abrupt 22 climate change when they discovered striking evidence of 23 large, abrupt and widespread changes in the past. Recent 24 scientific evidence shows that major and widespread 25 climate changes have occurred with startling speed. For PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 68 1 example, roughly half the North Atlantic warming since the 2 last ice age was achieved in only a decade. And it was 3 accompanied by significant climatic changes across most of 4 the globe. 5 Similar events, including local warming as large 6 as 16 degrees, occurred repeatedly during the transition 7 into and out of the last ice age. 8 The past 140-year record indicates that global 9 average surface temperatures have been rising. Eleven of 10 the warmest years on record have occurred since 1990. And 11 the five warmest of all have occurred in the last seven 12 years. Because of these recent extremes the pace at which 13 average global temperatures have been rising has 14 accelerated in the past two decades. 15 The research suggests that once temperature rises 16 above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could 17 develop relatively abruptly. Persistent changes in the 18 atmospheric circulation could cause drops in some regions 19 of 5 to 10 ° Fahrenheit in a single decade. 20 --o0o-- 21 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: Scientists 22 have so far identified only one viable mechanism to induce 23 large global abrupt climate changes: A swift 24 reorganization of the ocean currents circulating around 25 the earth. These currents, collectively known as the PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 69 1 ocean conveyor, distribute vast quantities of heat around 2 our planet and, thus, play a fundamental role in governing 3 earth's climate. 4 There are some indications today that global 5 warming has reached a threshold where the oceanic 6 circulation could start to be significantly affected. 7 These indications include freshening of the North Atlantic 8 by melting glaciers, increased precipitation and fresh 9 water runoff, making it substantially less salty over the 10 last 40 years. 11 Research suggests that there is a possibility 12 that gradual global warming could lead to a relatively 13 abrupt slowing of the ocean's conveyor, which could lead 14 to harsher winter weather conditions, sharply reduced soil 15 moisture, and more intense winds in certain regions that 16 currently provide a significant fraction of the world's 17 food production. 18 --o0o-- 19 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: Although the 20 scientific understanding of climate change and its effects 21 continues to improve, it has been clear for quite some 22 time that climate change poses a threat to California. 23 Thus it is not surprising that attention has been focused 24 on this issue for many years. The regulation before you 25 today is a logical outgrowth of this previous work. PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 70 1 In 1988 the California Energy Commission, in 2 conjunction with the Air Resources Board and other state 3 agencies, began to assess climate trends and impacts. The 4 Commission and its staff have mounted a comprehensive 5 research program and have laid the foundation for our 6 current understanding of California greenhouse gas 7 emissions and impacts. 8 The ARB staff report for this rulemaking contains 9 a lengthy chronology of the many climate change studies, 10 reports and other actions that have been undertaken by the 11 Commission and by other state agencies. 12 Recent initiatives by the state have included the 13 establishment of the California Climate Action Registry, 14 the West Coast Governors Global Warming Initiative, and 15 the California Hydrogen Highway Network. Thus, the action 16 before you today builds on a long history of previous 17 climate change activity in California. 18 --o0o-- 19 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: Today's 20 proposal also builds upon long-standing California 21 programs to control motor vehicle emissions. California 22 was the first state in the nation to establish pollution 23 controls for motor vehicles. The current version of our 24 program, known as the Low-Emission Vehicle Program, or LEV 25 II, in shorthand, has been highly successful in PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 71 1 controlling smog-forming emissions. What is before you 2 today is an expansion of that program to include the 3 regulation of greenhouse gases. 4 --o0o-- 5 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: Finally, 6 today's proposal also builds on a long history of public 7 support for environmental protection. California citizens 8 have consistently called upon their leaders to protect and 9 enhance our natural environment. This support continues 10 today. As Assembly Member Pavley mentioned in her 11 remarks, the Public Policy Institute of California has 12 conducted several recent polls asking about environmental 13 issues. When asked what about the state law that requires 14 all auto makers to further reduce the emissions of 15 greenhouse gases from new cars in California by 2009, for 16 three years in a row 80 percent or more of the public has 17 voiced their support. 18 --o0o-- 19 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: Thus, we are 20 brought here today by the convergence of several factors: 21 Scientific research on climate change, a long history of 22 motor vehicle pollution control, and public support for 23 environmental action. These factors along with a healthy 24 dose of environmental leadership lead to the passage of AB 25 1493 in July of 2002. PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 72 1 --o0o-- 2 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: AB 1493 3 requires the Air Resources Board to adopt regulations by 4 January 1, 2005, that provide the maximum feasible and 5 cost effective reduction of greenhouse gases from new 6 motor vehicles. The Board must report to the Governor and 7 the Legislature also by January 1, 2005, regarding the 8 action taken. 9 The regulations may not take effect prior to 10 January 1 of 2006. The one year intervening period 11 between January '05 and January '06 is set aside for 12 legislative review of the adopted regulation. 13 Finally, the regulation can apply to 2009 and 14 later model year vehicles. 15 --o0o-- 16 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: The bill 17 provides direction as to what the regulation must include. 18 The regulation must provide maximum flexibility, must 19 recognize actions taken in advance of the effective date, 20 and must allow for alternative means of compliance. 21 --o0o-- 22 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: AB 1493 is 23 quite explicit as well as to some things that the 24 regulation cannot do. The regulation cannot require fees 25 or taxes on vehicles, fuels or travel. Nor can it man the PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 73 1 sale of any vehicle category such as SUV's, require 2 reduction in vehicle weight, or require a limitation on or 3 reduction of the speed limit or vehicle travel. 4 --o0o-- 5 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: The bill 6 sets forth some ambitious technical targets and an 7 ambitious time line. In this next section I will describe 8 how staff went about the development of our staff proposal 9 to meet those requirements. 10 --o0o-- 11 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: This 12 slide -- I'm sorry. I'm looking -- all right. Thank you. 13 This slide presents a big picture overview of our 14 work. The work was broken into several phases. For the 15 first year and a half we conducted a thorough technical 16 assessment. 17 Could you back up one please. 18 Great. 19 --o0o-- 20 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: The output 21 of this effort was an assessment of the technologies that 22 are available, the best tools to assess the environmental 23 and economic impacts of those technologies, possible 24 approaches to alternative compliance, and similar finding. 25 During this phase we held a number of workshops PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 74 1 and provided an update to the Board in November 2003. 2 The next phase was the development of our staff 3 proposal. This involved the integration of our staff 4 findings into a draft staff report, which was released on 5 June 14th. 6 Following the public workshop on the draft we 7 developed our final proposal, which was released on August 8 6th. 9 Throughout the development of the staff proposal 10 we have maintained an open public process with numerous 11 opportunities for comment. 12 --o0o-- 13 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: I won't go 14 through all the details, but this slide lists the various 15 workshops that we have held along the way. Some major 16 milestones are the International Vehicle Technology 17 Symposium held in March of 2003, the April 2004 workshop 18 on our draft technology assessment, and the July 2000 19 workshop on our draft staff report. Thus the major 20 outlines of our proposal have been public for a 21 considerable period of time. 22 While on the subject of process, let me note that 23 we recently reduced an addendum to the final staff report. 24 This addendum updates in response to comments received our 25 cost analysis and our analysis of the resulting economic PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 75 1 impacts. In the addendum we increased our estimate of the 2 average fleet-wide cost of meeting the standard, 3 particularly for passenger cars and small trucks. 4 This did not, however, change any of our 5 fundamental conclusions as to the impact of the regulation 6 on the economy or on consumers. 7 We also now are estimating that the regulation 8 will have a larger beneficial impact on emissions of 9 smog-forming pollutants. All of the numbers that we will 10 be presenting to you today are based on this most recent 11 update. 12 --o0o-- 13 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: All of this 14 work has been conducted within the framework of the 15 Administrative Procedures Act which governs the ARB 16 rulemaking process. Rule adoption also requires 17 compliance with the California Environmental Quality Act, 18 or CEQA. Our staff report and our response to 19 environmental comments fulfill our environmental 20 documentation responsibilities under CEQA. 21 --o0o-- 22 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: In addition 23 to the various workshops and public meetings that were 24 held to seek comment on the staff analysis, the staff 25 report was formerly submitted for peer review. PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 76 1 --o0o-- 2 VEHICLE PROGRAM SPECIALIST SHULOCK: The report 3 and its supporting documents were submitted for peer 4 review by experts associated with the University of 5 California. The University of California Office of the 6 President administers the peer review process including 7 the identification and approval of the peer reviewers. 8 The reviewers are selected based on their areas of 9 expertise. 10 This slide identifies the six peer reviewers and 11 their affiliations. Two of the reviewers, Professor 12 Hanemann and Professor Prather, are in the audience today. 13 The peer reviewers evaluated the June 14 draft 14 staff report and related technical support documents and 15 provided written comments. In response to those comments 16 staff made several revisions which are reflected in the 17 final staff report released in August. Several of the 18 comments focused on providing additional clarifying 19 language in the draft staff report. 20 The revised staff report as well as staff 21 responses to the peer review comments were also provided 22 to the peer reviewers for a second look. Based on their 23 independent reviews, the peer reviewers concluded that the 24 staff analysis and recommendations relies on the 25 application of sound scientific knowledge, methods and PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 77 1 practices. 2 In addition to revising the staff report, the 3 document that provides each of the peer reviewers comments 4 and the staff responses was prepared and is available on 5 the ARB website. 6 Next, Mr. Steve Albu will cover the technology 7 assessment and standard development. 8 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: I think this might be an 9 appropriate spot to take a break before we get into that. 10 And it's now 10:53 by the clock here. So maybe break till 11 10 minutes after 11. 12 I'd also like to highlight before we get into the 13 technology piece here that outside we do have a 2004 14 Nissan Murano with continuously variable transmission, 15 CVT; an Audi -- 2004 Audi TT with six-speed manual 16 transmission with direct shift gear box; 2005 Dodge 17 Magnum, 5.7 liter Hemi with cylinder deactivation; a 2004 18 Acura RSX with an I-V Tech engine; and a 2004 Prius. 19 And the people who can talk about this will be 20 Louise Bedsworth, Union of Concerned Scientists; John 21 Pacheco from Environmental Defense; and Roland Hwang from 22 NRDC. So that's very timely because now we're getting 23 into technical issue. 24 Before we break, does the Board -- my colleagues 25 have any questions of staff at this time? PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 78 1 Seeing none, then let's break and come back at 10 2 after 11. 3 (Thereupon a recess was taken.) 4 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: I'd like to get started. I 5 realize all the executive staff have left. So maybe I can 6 get them back together. 7 BOARD MEMBER RIORDAN: Ms. Terry's coming. She's 8 here. 9 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Thank you, Lynn, for leading 10 the way. 11 BOARD MEMBER RIORDAN: We'll turn it over to you, 12 Lynn. 13 (Laughter.) 14 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Now 11:15. I can see the 15 danger of letting people go and then getting them back. 16 DEPUTY EXECUTIVE OFFICER TERRY: I lost a Board 17 member on the way back. 18 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: You lost a Board member. 19 (Laughter.) 20 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: Well, I would like to make 21 sure that we've got Board members here and staff. 22 I would like to say that, my understanding from 23 staff, is an additional technology on display. It's a 24 Jeep Liberty with a CO2 air-conditioning system. Is that 25 correct? PETERS SHORTHAND REPORTING CORPORATION (916) 362-2345 79 1 That's also out there. So sorry I didn't add 2 that in. So it would be something good to look at. 3 Steve, are you going to continue, or is it Paul? 4 ENGINEERING STUDIES BRANCH CHIEF ALBU: It's me. 5 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: You are. Okay. 6 Well, I'd like to wait. 7 Oh, there she is. 8 I think also before we start our Legal Counsel, 9 Ms. Johnston, wanted to say something about the course 10 before us. 11 GENERAL COUNSEL JOHNSTON: I just wanted to point 12 out to the Board members that you've received testimony 13 that's covered with a pink sheet. And that is 14 confidential business information that we will be treating 15 confidentially. So we will be collecting the testimony 16 again during lunch period and at the end of day to protect 17 its confidentiality. 18 Thank you. 19 CHAIRPERSON LLOYD: So we should -- 20 BOARD MEMBER PINEDA: Diane, you may want to just 21 confirm that I did not receive a copy. 22 GENERAL COUNSEL JOHNSTON: Right. And Board 23 Member Pineda has not received this inform