Last reviewed on August 29, 2013

Greenhouse Gas Inventory - 2020 Emissions Forecast

Overview

2020 estimates of California's greenhouse gas emissions have been updated to account for new estimates for future fuel and energy demand as well as other factors. This updated forecast accounts for the effects of the recent economic recession. Data sources, methods and assumptions are available below. The previous 2020 GHG emissions forecast, used in the AB32 Scoping Plan, is still available on the archived forecast page.

The forecast is an estimate of the emissions expected to occur in the year 2020 if none of the foreseeable measures included in the Scoping Plan were implemented. The base year used for forecasting emissions is the average of statewide emissions in the GHG inventory for 2006, 2007, and 2008; except for In-state electricity generation and industrial sources emitting >25,000 MTCO2e/year, for which 2008 data from ARB’s GHG mandatory reporting program were used. Using the average of the last three years of known emissions dampens variations in any given year that may make it unsuitable as the basis for forecasting. For example, using a hot and dry year, with higher power consumption and less hydroelectric power generation as the forecasting base year, would skew the expected emissions associated with power generation.

The 2020 greenhouse gas emissions forecast provides a baseline for the proposed Cap-and-Trade (C&T) regulation. The forecast of total emissions expected in 2020 includes reductions anticipated from Pavley I and the RPS (38 MMTCO2e total). With these reductions in the baseline, the estimated 2020 statewide greenhouse gas emissions forecast is 507 MMTCO2e.

Links to forecasts and methods:


2020 GHG Emissions Forecast

Bar plot of the GHG emissions in 1990, 2006-2008 and forecast for 2020
(Forecast last updated: 28 October 2010)
Forecast by Scoping Plan Categories 2020 Emissions
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
Transportation 183.9
On Road 168.1
- Passenger Vehicles 127.0
- Heavy Duty Trucks 41.2
Ships & Commercial Boats 6.0
Aviation (Intrastate) 3.3
Rail 3.6
Unspecified 2.9
Electric Power 110.4
In-State Generation 56.8
- Natural Gas 48.9
- Other Fuels 7.9
Imported Electricity 53.5
- Unspecified Imports 26.8
- Specified Imports 26.8
Commercial and Residential 45.3
Residential Fuel Use 31.0
- Natural Gas 28.9
- Other Fuels 2.1
Commercial Fuel Use 13.9
- Natural Gas 12.5
- Other Fuels 1.5
Commercial Cogeneration Heat Output 0.4
Industrial 91.5
Refineries 35.0
General Fuel Use 14.8
- Natural Gas 9.5
- Other Fuels 5.3
Oil & Gas Extraction 15.8
- Fuel Use 15.0
- Fugitive Emissions 0.7
Cement Plants 9.2
- Clinker Production 5.6
- Fuel Use 3.6
Cogeneration Heat Output 9.7
Other Process Emissions 7.0
Recycling and Waste 8.5
Landfills1 8.5
High GWP 37.9
Ozone Depleting Substance Substitutes 36.1
Electricity Grid SF6 Losses 2 1.0
Semiconductor Manufacturing1 0.8
Agriculture 29.1
Livestock 16.4
- Enteric Fermentation (Digestive Process) 8.7
- Manure Management 7.7
Crop Growing & Harvesting 8.5
- Fertilizers 7.1
- Soil Preparation and Disturbances 1.4
- Crop Residue Burning 0.1
General Fuel Use 4.2
- Diesel 3.1
- Natural Gas 0.8
- Gasoline 0.4
- Other Fuels 0.0
Forestry 0.2
Wildfire (CH4 & N2O Emissions) 0.2
TOTAL GROSS EMISSIONS 506.8
 
Forestry Net Emissions 0.0
TOTAL NET EMISSIONS 506.8
1 These categories are under the Industrial Sector in ARB's GHG Emission Inventory
2 This category is under the Electric Power Sector in ARB's GHG Emission Inventory

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