Phase 2 Reformulated Gasoline

                      Transition Subcommittee

                               Final                            
                         Meeting Summary
                           May 17, 1995

                  California Air Resources Board

                             -FINAL-

I.   Introduction

The Phase 2 Reformulated Gasoline Transition Subcommittee held a meeting on
May 17, 1995 in Sacramento, from 9:00 am to 12:00 pm.

The key issues discussed were:

     o    Phase 2 RFG Supply/Demand Update - North/South Split  
     o    CEC/ARB Joint RFG Survey - Preliminary Aggregated Product Slate
     o    "What If" Scenarios
     o    Phase 2 RFG Information Clearinghouse Concept

Attached for your information are copies of the presentations which were
made to the subcommittee, and a copy of the meeting attendance list. 
Inquiries about this meeting summary should be directed to Mr. Greg Allen,
Transition Subcommittee Secretary,
at (916) 327-5599.


II.  Phase 2 RFG Supply/Demand Update - North/South Split  
     
This presentation was in response to previous subcommittee discussions
regarding CEC's forecast for the Phase 2 RFG supply/demand balance in
California.  CEC staff presented the results of further analysis which provides
separate balance forecasts for  northern and southern California.  The
north/south split was established at Bakersfield, with Bakersfield included
in the northern area.  It was felt that such an evaluation may prove
beneficial in future distribution system analyses without compromising any      
specific refiner's confidentiality.



The results indicate that through the year 2000, Northern California's
maximum RFG capacity will exceed its high demand forecast, while Southern
California's demand will eventually exceed its maximum RFG capacity.  This
suggests that as we approach the turn of the century, Southern California
may rely on Northern California supply to meet the shortfall if one exists.     
     
In addition to separate RFG balances, separate balance forecasts for
conventional gasoline were also presented.  Conventional gasoline is
exported by pipeline to Reno  from northern California, and to the Las
Vegas/Phoenix area from southern California.  Northern California's
production capacity is expected to greatly exceed the limited transport
capacity of the Reno pipeline.  However, due to the expected continuation of    
rapid growth in the Las Vegas and Phoenix markets, supplies of conventional
gasoline  from throughout California will be needed to meet the southern
California pipeline  export demand.  Furthermore, as California refiners
begin to increase their production of Phase 2 RFG to meet a steadily
increasing demand, production of conventional gasoline may decrease resulting
in higher reliance on imports to meet the pipeline export demand.

Contact: Gordon Schremp  (916) 654-4887
 

III.    CEC/ARB Joint RFG Survey - Preliminary Aggregated Product Slate

In response to desires expressed by refiners regarding the type of analysis
performed on the RFG survey data, CEC staff presented preliminary 
aggregates of essentially the entire product slate in California.  Because there
are certain products with a limited number of producers, the analysis addressed
statewide aggregates only.  A north/south split of this analysis will not be
made publicly available in order to avoid compromising the confidentiality of
data obtained from certain refiners.  The results of this analysis were
presented in graphical format; a copy of the presentation materials is enclosed
for  your reference. 

Contact: Gordon Schremp  (916) 654-4887      


IV.  "What If" Scenarios

Efforts to assist "what if" scenario planning include the identification of
key process units necessary for a typical California refinery to produce
Phase 2 RFG.  CEC and ARB staff have been meeting with refiners on an
individual basis to obtain a better understanding of the operational
intricacies of these reconfigured facilities.  Discussions with individual
refiners addressed the various options available when a key unit goes down,
and the effect of such an unscheduled outage on production capabilities.  Staff      
that participated in these meetings feel that they were very beneficial and
expressed great appreciation of the various refiners' cooperative efforts.  However,
due to the confidential nature of specific refinery operational information,
discussion of these meetings before the subcommittee was quite limited and
in very general terms. 

Contact: Tom Glaviano  (916) 654-4874
  

V.   Phase 2 RFG Information Clearinghouse Concept

CEC staff presented a conceptual outline of a "Phase 2 RFG Information          
Clearinghouse."  The role of the clearinghouse would be to collect
and analyze data from a variety of sources related to all aspects of RFG
production, distribution, and marketing.  The data would be collected for the
first year of the program and would be used as an early warning system to
detect potential major problems which arise.  The concept is basically an
expansion of existing data tracking performed by the CEC.  The presentation
materials provide a fairly detailed overview of the sources and types of data
to be collected and analyzed.

There was concern expressed by several subcommittee members regarding the       
dissemination of the data collected.  It was quickly pointed out
that the term "clearinghouse" is probably inappropriate in this
application because there will be very  little, if any, dissemination of
data.  The results of the data collection and analysis will primarily be used
to keep ARB program management abreast of developing problems in the system
and to brief the Governor when necessary during emergency or crisis situations.  
It was agreed that future development of this concept will use terms
other than "clearinghouse'' in any descriptive titles.

Contact: Tom Glaviano  (916) 654-4874
     


CBG Program Advisory and Subcommittee Activities