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Comment 10 for Zero Emission Vehicle Regulation (zev2012) - 45 Day.

First NameRobert
Last NameConibear
Email Addressracbear@gmail.com
AffiliationEngineer,Ret'd, Oil&Gas Industry
SubjectAdvanced Clean Cars
Comment
I am concerned that the Board has lost some focus that being too
tied to the detail clouds the objective.  The objective being to
reduce GHG's in the quickest possible time and to do so in the most
efficient manner energy and cost-wise.
You are correct in that PHEV's and ZEV's are the means to the
objective so why not define each of these then address the time
line.  Use energy efficiency as the base criteria with rewards for
greater efficiencies and penalties for less.  
There are 11 auto companies that now or are near to production
PHEV's but less for BEV's.  There is no reason to delay an
aggressive standard and time line as the technology and products
are in place.  Remember that these will follow your lead but you
can also follow and update your standard as both change.
However to be effective the timeline cannot be ignored.  The auto
companies do not have aggressive production schedules for these
vehicles nor, as a result are the vehicles reasonably priced
therefore it will take a long time without incentive to replace the
existing vehicles.
I proposed a method to Barbara Boxer which I have added below which
shows a way to do this quickly. Basically the user pays into a fund
that is used to guarantee purchase of vehicles to auto companies
then is used to discount the purchase price.  The numbers shown are
for the USA overall but the outcome is for an 80% fuel reduction in
ten years and shous the longer term benifits to the economy as a
whole.

Regards,
Bob Conibear

email to Barbara,  12 Dec 2011.

Barbara, here is how to gain complete independence from foreign oil
supplies while reducing Green House Gases substantially and
substantially increasing per capita discretionary spending.
GOALS--------------Reduce fuel consumption by 80% in ten years
(9Mbbl/d to 1.8)
	---------------Corresponding crude oil reduction from 15Mbbl/d to
3Mbbl/d
	---------------Corresponding reduction in GHG’s
	---------------Increase Discretionary Spending by $907.2 million
daily!!!
		         ( 9Mbbl/d minus 1.8, times 42 gallons /bbl, times
$3/gal)

IDENTIFY DIFFICULTY------availability of low cost energy efficient
vehicles 

SOLUTION------Set up an independent non-profit fund to guarantee
loans to order large quantities of vehicles that use little fuel or
no fuel, and guarantee assembly line production of vehicles that
meet the defined standard.  Spend the fund on rebates, added,
replacing and/or superseding the present rebates.  Pay for the fund
by usage fee on each gallon of gasoline thereby making the users
pay for fuel efficient vehicles and reward them and the country by
low to nil future costs of fuel with the new vehicle at no extra
capital costs to the buyer.  No more studies, experimental funding,
etc, just buy them!
Here are the numbers:
	9 million barrels fuel per day, current use---137,970 million
gallons per year
	User Fee at $.50/gal-------------$68,985 million per year
	Rebate per vehicle,say $7000, number of vehicles------9.855
million per year
	Present new vehicles purchased yearly,-------13 million per year

DEFINED STANDARD-----Independently set up general standard based on
efficiency of 	the drive system.  Here are basic criteria:
Driver----------	
Electric Motor efficiency-------------------------90%
Diesel Engine efficiency------------------------32.5%
Gasoline(spark ignition) engine efficiency-----25%

Fuel savings compared to spark ignition engines:
	All Electric (battery)-----------------------------100%
	Plug-In Hybrids-----------------------------------+80%
	Hybrid (Parallel drives)---------------------------50%
	Hybrid (Series drives)-----------------------------40%
	Diesel---------------------------------------------30%
	Gasoline, ethanol, Nat Gas-------------------------0%
	Fuelcell----depends on type-------------------------?


VEHICLES AVAILABLE----------Most major auto makers (11) produce
PHEV’s, or are about to produce but with limited production. 
Reserve production of two million vehicles from five and get a good
price!!  Run,do not walk!!

There are of course many variables pro and con, going on this
course or any course for that matter and having been in the Oil and
Gas Industry as an engineer all my working life I have a lot more
info should this be of interest to you.  Please note that the oil
companies and the auto companies are reluctant to change their ways
on this since it will greatly affect their short term bottom line
and change the industry forever.

Regards,
Robert A Conibear
  

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Date and Time Comment Was Submitted 2011-12-13 12:49:51

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