Comment Log Display

Cars and light-duty trucks must support climate stabilization.
Based on Dr. James Hansen's latest writings, the stabilization
trajectory must reach 80% below 1990 levels about 20 years sooner
than S-3-05's year of 2050. In other words, this sector, like all
other significant sectors, must reach 80% below 1990 levels by
2030, NOT 2050.

The attached work which is based on the best estimates back in
2008. More specifically, it is based on the work of Steve Winkelman
and S-3-05. It shows a need to drop net driving by 15% and
per-capita driving by 35.1%, by year 2035. The good news is that
cars will be much more efficient by 2035 than Steve Winkelman's
estimates. However, the bad news overwhelms the good news. The bad
news is that S-3-05 is not even close to being sufficient. Doing
the updated calculation, using the updated car efficiency and the
updated stabilization trajectory, the driving reductions needed by
2035 will be even less than the old results, as stated above. 

Please take an interest in human survival and science. Call me at
760-754-8025 and I will show you my latest calculations, which are
based in CAFE standards from 2010 to 2025 and a generous assumption
of how they will change from 2025 to 2035 (2.5 MPG per year
improvement)to estimate the average efficiency of cars and
light-duty trucks in California in 2035, compared to year 2005. I
used a 15 year car wear out and therefore I divided vehicles into
15 different age categories, from first year to 15th year.

Given the steep reductions in driving that will be required, I have
never-the-less had to come up with solutions that will meet the
need. 

There are two different 3-legged stools. The first is, as stated by
Winkleman, clean cars, clean fuels, and less driving. The second is
how to achieve the required amount of less driving: good transit,
good development ("smart growth" and "complete streets"), and
improving the way we pay for roads and car parking. 

Please call me at 760-754-8025 so we can go over the solution and
how these changes can be accomplished in time.

Doing less than what is needed, by having an insufficient Scoping
Plan, will play a large role in destabilizing the climate.
Destabilization is a significant negative environmental impact.
Therefore, the adoption of this Scoping Plan is a project, under
CEQA law and therefore an EIR process is needed.

For the children,

Mike Bullock