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Comment 59 for Comments on the RTAC (sb375-rtac-ws) - 1st Workshop.


First Name: Robert
Last Name: Ball
Email Address: lkimura@arb.ca.gov
Affiliation: Kern Council of Governments

Subject: RTAC comment from Kern COG - Current Base Year vs. Future Base Year Comparison for Targets
Comment:
The comments below were received by ARB staff via email on Sept.
15, 2009:

Issue on Percapita Targets – (current base year comparison vs.
future base year comparison)

According to the RTAC’s July release of summary data from the
transportation models, the statewide weighted average of CO2
percapita from cars and light trucks will increase by .3 pounds per
person between each model’s base year and 2035 statewide.  The SJV
MPOs weighted average increase is 1.1 pounds percapita (Merced 3.4,
Kern 3.0, Tulare 1.1, Fresno .8, StanCOG .6, Madera .2, SJCOG -.6,
Kings -.7).  

It is conceivable that some MPOs may not be able show any
reduction from their current base year (2010 for the Valley MPOs). 
Fast growth MPOs lacking transit infrastructure, and with most new
housing on the periphery of major urban centers, will likely have
the greatest difficulty showing a reduction.  ARB has indicated
that a region that doesn’t show a uniform percent reduction in
percapita CO2 may be allowed a lower rate of reduction than the
average statewide.  No one on the RTAC has discussed what happens
if the percapita CO2 still shows an increase between 2010 and 2035
eventhough it is a lower rate of increase.  

An alternative approach discussed during the RTAC was the use of a
future year comparison.  SB375 allows a future year “business as
usual” comparison with an SCS scenario based on latest planning
assumptions.  This would allow regions to take credit for net
reductions in CO2 eventhough they have a net increase in percapita
VMT and GHG.  The goal of SB375 is to demonstrate reductions in
CO2, not force every region to to have the same percapita VMT. 
This issue may force some regions into having to do an APS, a
concern raised by some of the RTAC members.

Regions that are unable to show a reduction should be allowed to
use a future “business-as-usual” base year comparison to their SCS
scenario.

Attached is a copy of the summary data sheet from the MPOs using
data from the last approved conformity.  CO2 percapita is found on
line 193.


Attachment: www.arb.ca.gov/lists/sb375-rtac-ws/119-rtac_mpo_scenario_data_w_added_variables_kern071709b.xls

Original File Name: rtac_mpo scenario data_w added variables_Kern071709b.xls

Date and Time Comment Was Submitted: 2009-09-15 16:47:48



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