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Comment 6 for Energy Comments for the GHG Scoping Plan (sp-energy-ws) - 1st Workshop.


First Name: Thomas
Last Name: Bleakney
Email Address: tbleakne@keyway.net
Affiliation:

Subject: Urgency, Solar Electric accounting
Comment:
Thank you for giving me the opportunity to participate in your
solicitation of public comment on July 8 in Diamond Bar.  I was
speaker #34.  My main point:

I feel the plan does not go far enough to communicate the urgency
of climate change and the sacrifice that the public will need to
endure to eventually solve the problem.

I have one additional specific suggestion concerning what should
be the proper accounting for solar electric installations.  Recent
careful studies (I believe in Arizona) show that, with current
technology, it takes at least 3 years of operation of a solar
electric array to pay back the energy required for the manufacture
of that array.  For areas of the state subject to frequent clouds,
this time would be longer.  This price is tolerable because the
array should last for at least two decades.  However, since the
solar electric industry is growing in size about 30%/year,
essentially all the power being generated from this source is
being absorbed by the manufacturer of more solar arrays.  Thus on
a global basis, solar electric will only start to make a net
contribution to the substitution of fossil fuels when either the
solar cell technology changes or the growth curve  becomes linear
instead of exponential.  Improvements in technology are very
likely but not guaranteed, but eventually the growth curve will
slow.  In the meantime, however, I submit that  some kind of
correction factor needs to be used in counting growth in solar
electric installations as part of the state's carbon-free credits.
 At the very least, perhaps you should introduce a 3-year lag
between when a solar array goes online and when you begin to count
its energy contribution.

My source for this information, as well as the overall urgency of
the problem, is an excellent lecture by Dr. Nate Lewis, professor 
of chemistry at Caltech.  I strongly urge that one or more of your
staff view the recording of this lecture, given at Caltech's Jet
Propulsion Laboratory Feb 28, 2008 at web address:

http://realserver1.jpl.nasa.gov:8080/ramgen/vod/av/2008/vk-lect/080228-vkl-WhereintheWorldWillOurEnergyComeFrom-AVC-2008-038.rv

If the above link is garbled, you can find in on web page:
http://jpl.nasa.gov/events/lectures/feb08.cfm
 
Thank you.

Thomas Bleakney M.S. Physics
Claremont, CA

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Date and Time Comment Was Submitted: 2008-07-13 15:25:14



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