Comment Log Display

Here is the handout for my testimony on July 17, 2008


Policy Brief for California ARB:  The Draft Scoping Plan 
Needs Stronger Policies for Land Use and Transportation

Workshop on Draft AB 32 Scoping Plan, July 17, Cal/EPA HQ,
Sacramento

Professor Robert A. Johnston, Dept. of Environmental Science &
Policy and Institute of Transportation Studies, University of
California, Davis (rajohnston@ucdavis.edu)


ľ	The Draft Plan recommends only a 2M ton reduction in GHGs from
Local Government Actions on land use and local transportation. 
Transportation is 38% of total GHG emissions and is the
fastest-growing sector, due to VMT growth.  

ľ	There may be slippage in attaining many of the GHG reductions
in Table 2.  Stronger local land use policies could serve as
backup.  Also, they will be essential to attaining the 2050 GHG
reductions.  The ETAAC says that "decreasing VMT is critical" (p.
1-9).  This distinguished committee covers both economics and
technology. 

ľ	Cap-and-trade and carbon taxes will not reduce GHGs much in
transportation, unless the transit, walk, and bike modes are
widely available in compact urban areas.  

ľ	Decades are needed, to reduce auto travel substantially. 
Transit improvements must be made first, in order for land
development to respond with infill projects.  Both transit and
compact growth have to occur before large mode shifts can take
place. 


Policy Recommendations:

1.  County and MPO GHG targets must be mandated, in order for most
local governments to take the necessary actions in land use
planning.  The recommended statewide target for a 2M ton reduction
is too conservative.  See research review, below.

2.  An Indirect Source Rule for GHGs should be required in all air
districts.  This program is under the jurisdiction of the ARB. 
ISRs will improve the State's economy by making low-density and
remote developments pay their full environmental costs.  

3.  The Report should strongly urge county and regional
transportation agencies to make transit, walk, and bike the
favored modes of travel and to give them funding priority. Also,
the ARB should urge these agencies to study regional
transportation scenarios that will reduce total vehicle-miles
traveled (VMT) in their regions.  

4.  The ARB should urge  the California Transportation Commission
to give priority in funding to transit, walk, and bike facilities.
 The economic, equity, and health co-benefits of reducing VMT are
very large. 

5.  The ARB should recommend that Caltrans increase funding for
Blueprint planning and require recipients to analyze at least one
scenario that reduces VMT.  


Research Review:

1.  Increasing mpg will be slow and limited in effect.  Because of
growth in VMT, it will take at least to 2035 to attain 1990 levels
of total GHGs for light-duty vehicles in the U.S., according to a
life-cycle analysis where all possible policies were effected (A.
Bandivadekar and J. Heywood, Coordinated Policy Measures for
Reducing the Fuel Consumption of the U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle
Fleet, MIT Sloan Automotive Lab, 2004).   

2.  Reducing the carbon-intensity of fuels is problemmatic.
Worldwide biofuel production from corn or sugarcane could actually
increase GHGs, because of land clearance (T. Searchinger, et al.,
Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases...,
Science,  2008).  Making biofuels from waste materials is
unproven.  

3.   Congressional carbon tax proposals (and fully-auctioned
cap-and-trade credits) would not reduce GHGs in the transportation
sector, due to increasing VMT.  Using the Energy Information
Agency's NEMS model, scenarios with carbon taxes as high as
$60/ton in 2030 did not reduce GHGs in transportation, due to the
lack of substitute fuels and to  slowly increasing mpg.  Only if
fuel prices are over $5/gallon in 2030, do we get GHGs in
transport reduced to 2010 levels.  (K. Gallagher and G. Collantes,
Analysis of Policies to Reduce Oil Consumption..., Harvard Kennedy
School, Energy Technology Disc. Paper 2008-06, 2008.)

4.  The ARB's ETAAC has recommended that "Opportunities to improve
access while reducing vehicle travel should be the cornerstone of
transportation and land use planning" (p. 3-9).  They also
recommend Smart Growth land use policies, implemented by 2012,
motivated by "consistent incentives in infrastructure planning and
development" (p. 3-14).  This committee has many experts on both
economics and on various technologies.  

5.  Compact growth can reduce VMT and travel costs.  Recent
modeling by SACOG showed a 7% reduction in VMT, compared to the
trend case (2000-2020), with land use measures alone.  A Blueprint
study in the Twin Cities showed VMT reductions of about 15% in 2030
and one in the Chicago region showed a reduction of 21% in 2020
(Winkelman, Comment on Stone..., J. of the Am. Plng. Assoc.,
2008).  A recent analysis of the U.S. found that higher urban
densities could reduce GHG emissions from transport by 20% in 20
years and 39% in 45 years (J. Marshall, Energy-Efficient Urban
Form, Env. Sci. and Tech., 2008). A recent study of the San
Joaquin Valley found that VMT could be reduced by 11% (2000-2030)
with compact growth and modest transit improvements and no pricing
policies (S. Bai, et al., Integrated Impacts of Regional
Development..., 2007 conference paper, Dept. of Civil and Env.
Engineering, UC Davis).  

6.  A recent review of the empirical literature found that Smart
Growth reduces per capita  VMT.  This conclusion held for
different scales and locations and held constant personal
attitudes regarding location and travel (L. Frank and Co., An
Evidence Based Review of the Linkages between Land Development
Actions and Household Travel Related Emissions, for Env. Defense,
July 1, 2008.)  

7.  Another recent review of the literature found that compact
development can reduce per capita VMT by 20-40%, compared to
sprawl.  This would result in a nationwide  reduction in
transportation-related GHGs of 7-10% in 2050. (R. Ewing, et al.,
Growing Cooler, Urban Land Inst., 2007).  Transit and pricing
policies were not included. 

8.  I reviewed 40 long-range scenario studies done using travel
models and advanced urban models and found that total VMT
reductions in 20 years ranged from 10% to 20%, compared to the
future trend scenario.  In most studies, the highway
levels-of-service were the same as, or better than, the trend
scenario.  The European studies examined dozens of policy
scenarios.  I published 12 modeling studies of the Sacramento
region and found that compact growth, strong expansion of transit,
and workplace parking cashout resulted in total reductions in VMT
of about 20% in 25 years, compared to the trend scenario.  These
scenarios were economically better than the trend scenario,
especially for low-income households.  (R. Johnston, Review of
U.S. and European Regional Modeling Studies..., on
www.vtpi.org/johnston.pdf). 

9.  High-density residential buildings reduce per capita energy
use in construction and operations of  the buildings by a factor
of  about 2, compared to medium-density buildings.  The associated
travel energy use was reduced by a factor of almost 4. (J. Norman,
et al., Comparing High and Low Residential Density..., J. of Urban
Plng. and Dev., 2006.)

Conclusions from Research Review:

Recent proposals for a national carbon tax and cap-and-trade will
probably not reduce GHGs in the transport sector over time, due to
growth in VMT.  Low-carbon fuels may not have any effect in
reducing GHGs, by 2020.  Higher-mpg vehicles will be slow to
attain market dominance (20 years or more).   

Recent, well-controlled empirical studies show that land use
policies can substantially reduce VMT per capita (10-40% over
20-40 years).  Modeling studies, using equations derived from
empirical experience, give similar results for U.S. and European
urban regions of varied size.  These modeling studies permit the
evaluation of various combinations of transit, land use
densification and mix, and pricing of parking, fuels, and roads. 
They show that workplace parking cashout is needed, in conjunction
with strong expansion of transit and densification of development. 


Recent modeling studies by U.S. MPOs show total reductions in VMT
over 20-30 years of 10-20%., compared to the trend scenario. 
Pricing policies were not included.   

My modeling studies of the Sacramento region, using advanced urban
models, show that compact growth, transit expansion, and parking
cashout improve the economy of the region substantially and
particularly favor low-income households.  

The empirical studies and the modeling exercises both show that
California could reduce total VMT in 2020 by 10% and in 2050 by
40%, from a start date of 2010.