— The California Air Resources Board released an updated economic
analysis today that forecasts robust economic growth as the state
continues implementing AB 32, focusing primarily on energy efficiency
and fuel diversification measures.
“This analysis confirms
what economists have been saying all along: that full implementation of
the Scoping Plan is the right choice for California to make an
affordable transition to a clean energy economy,” said ARB Chairman
Mary D. Nichols. “It supports continued economic growth and sets us on
a course for greater energy security and less dependence on petroleum.”
The analysis shows the following key findings:
Fuel expenditures drop by 4.9 percent in 2020, with a total cost
savings of $3.8 billion in reduced consumption of gasoline and diesel,
as a result of increased investment in energy efficiency and cleaner
• Two million jobs will be created by
2020, the result of a sustained growth in labor demand of .9 percent
each year, which is consistent with the business-as-usual case.
• The economy, including personal income, will continue to grow at a rate of 2.4 percent per year.
• Offsets in a cap-and-trade program help to reduce costs.
Divergence from the AB 32 Scoping Plan (i.e. limiting
requirements for oil companies or utilities), increases costs and
shifts them to Californians and small businesses.
economic analysis was carefully reviewed by the 16-member Economic and
Allocation Advisory Committee (EAAC), an independent panel of policy,
business and economic experts established last May. The EAAC advised
ARB staff during the analysis and also contributed its own peer review
of the analysis which appears as an appendix to the final report.
analyses are conducted to show the impacts of making different policy
choices in order to identify possible risks and to provide insights
into which aspects of the program are most cost-effective.
The full report will be posted at www.arb.ca.gov
. For more information on the EAAC, go to www.climatechange.ca.gov/eaac/index.html
Thursday, March 25, 2010 members of the ARB will hear presentations
from staff and the EAAC on the updated economic analysis. In April, ARB
will hold a public meeting that will allow interested parties to
participate in a panel discussion of ARB’s and other economic analyses
of AB 32 implementation.