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The California Air Resources Board's Economics Program carries out a number of eocnomic studies
to evaluate statewide economic impacts of climate change, air pollution, and energy use policies. The following economic models are frequently used.
EDRAMEnvironmental
Dynamic Revenue Analysis Model (EDRAM), developed by the University of California, Berkeley
researchers, is a computible general equalibrium (CGE) model
specifically
for the economy of California. As a nonlinear optimization model, EDRAM
captures all the fundamental
economic relationships among consumers, producers, and government in
the competitive market. This model generally can be run in the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) platform with a
nonlinear programming solver such as CONOPT. The GAMS package and
solvers can be purchased online from their developers.
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E3 RES CalculatorThe
33 percent RES Calculator (Calculator) was developed by Energy and
Environmental Economics, Incorporated (E3). It is a spreadsheet
model based on information obtained from the California energy
agencies, private consultants, stakeholders, and results obtained from
the Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative (RETI) process. The
RES calculator examines the supply of renewable resources around the
Western Energy Coordinating Council (WECC) and determines a portfolio
of resources to meet California’s 33 percent renewable target in
2020. The Calculator estimates the amount of electricity needed
to meet demand in 2020 as well as the amount and type of renewable
energy needed to meet a renewable goal in 2020. Based on the
renewable resource mix selected, the Calculator estimates the costs and
revenue required to meet a renewable electricity target in 2020.
The RES Calculator
(.zip
file, 8,036 KB) assumes that, in most cases, new high-voltage
transmission lines must be constructed to deliver new renewable energy
to California’s largest load centers. The cost of these lines is
included as an annual cost, levelized over the life of the resource.
The line cost is determined using an E3 transmission costing tool (.xls
file, 2,001 KB).
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Bill Impact CalculatorThe
RES Bill Impact Calculator (BIC) calculates the projected monthly bill
impacts of 33% RES implementation in 2020 relative to a baseline bill
that assumes no 33% RES implementation. These bill impacts are
calculated for residential customers, California Alternative Rates for
Energy (CARE) customers (low income residential customers who qualify
for the CARE discount) and small commercial customers. The monthly
bills are calculated based on the projected revenue requirements from
the RES Calculator, while the baseline revenue requirement assumes the
high net load 20% RPS scenario. The bill impact model was developed
collaboratively by the CPUC Energy Division and staff of the IOUs that
are regulated by the CPUC. This model does not estimate bill
impacts for customers of the publically owned utilities (POUs).
There are three BICs (.zip
file, 253 KB) that estimate the bill impact for the proposed 33 percent
RES and the 33 percent RES Alternative that was analyzed in the Staff
Report. To use the calculators, first go to the “Inputs” worksheet and
enter “L” to estimate bill impacts for the low load scenario or “H” to
estimate bill impacts for the high load scenario in the highlighted
cell. Press Enter. A summary of the estimated Bill Impacts for that
calculator can be found on the worksheet labeled “Summary BI.”
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If you have any questions or comments regarding these economic modeling tools, please
contact Fereidun Feizollahi, at (916) 323-1509.
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