Potential Impacts of Feebate Programs for New Passenger Vehicles
This page updated June 9, 2011
ARB Research Seminars
1:30 pm - 3:30 pm, PDT
Sierra Hearing Room, Second Floor
1001 I Street, Sacramento
Impacts of Feebate Programs
for New Passenger Vehicles
David S. Bunch Ph.D.
Graduate School of Management
University of California, Davis
David L. Greene
Energy and Transportation Science
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Transportation Sustainability Research Center
University of California, Berkeley
of researchers from the University of California completed a
comprehensive study to assess the potential design, implementation, and
benefits of a feebate program for new light-duty vehicles in California
as well as possible stakeholder responses. The study’s research plan
applied a variety of methodologies, including: case studies of existing
policies, quantitative modeling of market responses by manufacturers
and consumers, focus groups, stakeholder interviews, and a large-scale
survey of California households.
The study finds that feebate policies can be used in California to achieve additional reductions in greenhouse gases from new passenger vehicles beyond those projected from emission standards alone at a net negative social cost. Different feebate program configurations could lead to greater reductions, but require tradeoffs. Factors beyond California’s direct control also determine the effectiveness of feebates. Because California is roughly 10% of the domestic new vehicle market, a California-only feebate would lack the leverage to induce major vehicle design changes, with most of the emissions reductions coming instead from sales-mix shifts. Additionally, feebates are observed to interact with the stringency of national emissions standards. If standards become very stringent, feebates offer reduced incremental benefits because only relatively expensive technology will be available for adoption in response to feebates.
With regard to stakeholders, the statewide survey of 3,000 households indicates that consumers are generally concerned about climate change and energy independence, and that, based on an initial understanding, three-fourths would be supportive of feebate programs. As for industry, modeling results suggest that new vehicle sales levels would decline under all feebate programs, resulting in industry revenues falling on the order of 1 percent (or several hundred million dollars per year). Interviews with automakers indicate that their views on feebates are mixed, with details of program design being a key determinant.
David S. Bunch, Ph.D., is Professor of
Management, Graduate School of Management at the University of
California, Davis. Professor Bunch is known for his work in
identification and estimation of discrete choice models, stated choice
experiments, and combining stated and revealed preference data for
modeling and forecasting consumer market behavior.
Application areas for his research and teaching include marketing
research, e-commerce and Internet marketing, product management, and
transportation systems (through his affiliation with the UC Davis
Institute of Transportation Studies since its inception).
Professor Bunch was a principle in conceiving and directing a large
multi-year program to develop comprehensive forecasting models and
systems for vehicle purchase and usage behavior in California, designed
to include future alternative-fuel vehicles (e.g., electric
cars). More recently, Professor Bunch developed the CARBITS
model for use by the California Air Resources Board in its work to
establish regulations on greenhouse gas emissions in
California. He holds a B.S. from Rice University, an M.S.
from Northwestern University, and a Masters and PhD in Applied
Mathematical Sciences from Rice University.
David L. Greene, Ph.D., is a Corporate Fellow of Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Senior Fellow of the Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy and a Research Professor of Economics at the University of Tennessee. He is an author of more than 250 publications on transportation, energy and related issues, including 100 refereed journal articles. He is an emeritus member of both the Energy and Alternative Fuels Committees of the Transportation Research Board and a lifetime National Associate of the National Academies. Dr. Greene is currently a member of the National Research Council’s Committee on Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels. He is a recipient of the TRB’s Pyke Johnson Award, the Society of Automotive Engineers’ Barry D. McNutt Award for Excellence in Automotive Policy Analysis, the Department of Energy’s 2007 Hydrogen R&D Award as well as its 2011 Vehicle Technologies R&D Award, the International Association for Energy Economics’ Best Paper Award for his research on the rebound effect, and was recognized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for contributions to the IPCC’s receipt of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. He holds a B.A. from Columbia University, an M.A. from the University of Oregon, and a Ph.D. in Geography and Environmental Engineering from Johns Hopkins University.
Timothy E. Lipman, Ph.D., is an energy and environmental technology, economics, and policy research engineer and lecturer with the University of California, Berkeley. Dr. Lipman is serving as Co-Director for the campus’ Transportation Sustainability Research Center (TSRC), based at the Institute of Transportation Studies, and also as Director of the U.S. DOE Pacific Region Clean Energy Application Center (PCEAC). Tim’s research focuses on electric vehicles, fuel cell technology, combined heat and power systems, renewable energy, and electricity and hydrogen infrastructure. He completed a Ph.D. degree in Environmental Policy Analysis with the Graduate Group in Ecology at UC Davis (1999) and also holds an MS degree from UC Davis and an undergraduate degree from Stanford University.
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