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Heat Vulnerability in California Under Future Climate Change (A Spatial Synoptic Classification Approach)
This page updated January 11, 2011
Chair’s Air Pollution Seminar
Thursday, February
17,
2011
1:30 pm - 3:30 pm, PST
Sierra Hearing Room, Second Floor
1001 I Street, Sacramento
This event is
being Webcast, click here to view
Webcast viewers: Please send your questions during broadcast to:
sierrarm@calepa.ca.gov
Presentation is available at this link
Heat
Vulnerability in California
Under Future Climate Change
(A Spatial Synoptic Classification Approach)
Scott C. Sheridan, Ph.D.
and
Cameron C. Lee, Ph.D. Candidate
Department of Geography
Kent State University, Ohio
Excessive heat
significantly impacts the health of Californians during irregular but
intense heat events. Through the 21st century, a significant
increase in impact is likely, as the state experiences a changing
climate as well as an aging population. To assess this
impact, future heat-related mortality estimates were derived for nine
metropolitan areas in the state for the remainder of the century.
First, oppressive weather events were predicted for future years by
first correlating past surface weather types with circulation patterns,
and then predicting them in the future using projections of future
atmospheric circulation at three levels. Second, we estimated
heat-related mortality by initially determining historical weather-type
mortality relationships for each metropolitan area. These
were then projected into the future based on predicted weather
types. Estimates account for several levels of uncertainty:
for each metropolitan area, mortality values are produced for five
different climate model-scenarios, three different population estimates
(along with a no-growth model), and two different levels of
acclimatization (along with no acclimatization). Results show
a significant increase in heat events over the 21st century, with
oppressive weather types potentially more than doubling in frequency,
and with heat events of two weeks or longer becoming up to ten times
more common at coastal locations. Major urban centers could
have a greater than tenfold increase in heat-related mortality in the
over 65 age group by the 2090s.
Scott C. Sheridan,
Ph.D., is an Associate Professor of
climatology in the Department of Geography at Kent State. Dr.
Sheridan’s research interests include several different areas of
applied climatology, mostly involving the effects of climate on
humans. Through several contracts from NOAA among other
agencies, he has worked on the development of heat watch-warning
systems for over two dozen cities in the United States, Canada, South
Korea, and
Italy. With support from USEPA, he has explored public
perception of and behavior during heat warnings, and has recently
completed a project funded by the California Air Resources Board to
examine the potential for changed frequency of heat waves in the
future. Dr. Sheridan is presently working with the New York
State Department of Health in assessing the relationship between
weather and hospital admissions for a number of
causes. Dr. Sheridan currently serves as
editor-in-chief of the International Journal of
Biometeorology.
For information on this seminar
please contact:
Deborah M. Drechsler,
Ph.D. at
(916) 323-1526 or send email
to : ddrechsl@arb.ca.gov
For information on this
Series please contact:
Peter Mathews at (916)
323-8711 or send email to:
pmathews@arb.ca.gov
For a complete listing of
the ARB Chairman's Series and the related
documentation for
each one of the series
please
check this page
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