Comment Log Display

I have been watching and reading the CARB hearings regarding
mandates of ZEV for a number of years.  As near as I can tell,
CARB has been giving too much credence to auto maker’s statements
regarding the feasibility of manufacturing ZEV vehicles.  
Based on the proven claims of A123 Systems, Altair, the High
Compression Internal Combustion Engine (HCICE) and the XH150, here
is where we are at now:
We can make ANY vehicle with a curb weight of 3,000 lbs or less a
PHEV that can attain 40 miles all electric, and 50 mpg thereafter
PHEV.  The use of HCICE technology will at a minimum, double the
mpg of any standard internal combustion engine (ICE), and could as
much as quadruple the mpg.   This technology is scheduled for
deployment in 2013 by US Automakers.  It is not clear what
percentage of vehicles this will apply too.  CARB needs to know
that this technology is made possible by direct injection of
ethanol fuel in the 5% range, i.e., for every 20 gallons of
gasoline consumed, 1 gallon of ethanol will be required to avoid
knock ( premature cylinder detonation).
On the all electric vehicle side as of today:
Lightning Car Company in England can make a sports car that can go
from 0 to 60mph in 3.9 seconds, with a range of 250 miles at a cost
less than $15.00/recharge.  This recharge can be done in as little
as 10 minutes.   The short recharge time requires a 500/kwh plug
in station.  The 40 mile recharge, which works for nearly 75% of
drivers in the U.S., would take less than 4.5 hours  on a standard
120 volt socket.  Tesla Motors makes a sports car with a 220 mile
range with a cost to recharge from 0 to 100% of less than $4.40. 
Hydrogen based fuel cells will never reach this economic
efficiency.  This alone should tell CARB that hydrogen or ethanol
fueled vehicles are not worth considering as cost factors are a
major indicator of comparative efficiency.  Toyota has raised
their warranty for the battery packs in the Prius to 150,000
miles, which should give CARB greater confidence of the state of
current battery technology.
Implications:
An all electrical passenger car and truck fleet would require an
additional 10% over current electrical generation capability.  
Switching to an all electrical vehicle fleet would reduce air
pollution by 16% locally assuming no change in the generation mix,
drop oil imports by as much as 4%, and the trade deficit in the
energy sector by as much as $28 Billion Dollars.  A corporate
intelligence service, Stratfor, has made the assertion that Saudi
Arabia purposely overproduced oil to keep it at or about
$20.00/bbl to convince the US government to drop critical
alternative energy research.   To the degree that this did leave
to suspension of most US energy research projects, it would seem
that it is imperative that a major market such as California
dictate the need for transformation of automotive industries. 
This is best exemplified by Governor Schwarzeneger’s ownership of
a GMC Hummer.  
Action:  
Given the above, it would seem a rational approach would be to
mandate that as of 2013, all passenger and light vehicle trucks
sold in California should be PHEV’s, with HCICE engines.   This
gives all automakers 5 years to comply.  Given that it takes only
2 years to build a battery factory, the requirement is easily
achievable.  All such PHEV’s should be programmed to shut down the
HCICE within 3 seconds of coming to a complete stop (a strategy
used by the Toyota Prius).   During 2012 to 2014, the agreed to
requirement for 25,000 ZEV should be adhered too, with the proviso
that by 2018, ALL passenger vehicles and light trucks must be ZEV
vehicles.   I would remind CARB that the ability of researchers in
the US in the last 10 years has made a mockery of any naysayer
regarding BEV vehicle capabilities.   I would further like to
remind CARB that the manipulations of oil producing countries to
influence US policy decisions makes it clear that bold, decisive
action on the part of Federal and State policy makers is required
to overcome consumer confusion regarding the synergies of their
immediate strategies in decision making as to what vehicles make
the most sense to buy.  The large auto manufacturers should be
given the clear message to lead, follow or get out of the way.  
Thank you for your attention to this missive.
Thomas Saidak
tsaidak@pacbell.net