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Comment 37 for General Comments for the GHG Scoping Plan (sp-general-ws) - 1st Workshop.
First Name: Bob
Last Name: Johnston
Email Address: rajohnston@ucdavis.edu
Affiliation: UC Davis
Subject: Unequal Treatment of Uncertainty
Comment:
The Draft Plan says that the policies in the Local Govt. Actions category are uncertain and so only get 2M tons. However, many of the recommended technical fixes are also very uncertain, such as Light-Duty Vehicle GHG Standards (delayed by USEPA), Sustainable Forests (scientifically unclear), and Energy Efficiency (which has not worked in the past, due to more appliances and also the occupants change behaviors). There is a considerable body of empirical literature and of modeling studies, sent by me previously to the Local Govt. Actions category, that largely agree that land use policies can have a large effect on reducing VMT. The empirical research and the modeling studies often show similar effects for each of the different policies, such as density, mix, and walkability, that are in basic agreement re. magnitude of effects. This gives one some confidence in the results. Also, many of the modeling studies in the U.S. and Europe have used advanced urban models where one can examine policies one by one, or in groups. These modeling studies are in general agreement about the effects of various policy packages, too. I urge the ARB staff to treat uncertainty in a more evenhanded fashion, across these policy areas. A more reasonable target for Local Govt. Actions would be 6M tons, for 2020. This represents about 1M ton per year of policy implementation, 2014-2020, which is consistent with the middle of the pack of the empirical research and the modeling studies. Thanks.
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Date and Time Comment Was Submitted: 2008-07-15 11:03:57
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