Project at a Glance

Title: An econometric model of final demand components of California

Principal Investigator / Author(s): Kimbell, Larry J

Contractor: UCLA Business Forecsting Project

Contract Number: A9-086-31

Research Program Area: Economic Analysis

Topic Areas: Impacts, Modeling


The purpose of this research project has been to build an econometric model of final demand components in California. This model of final demand components is needed in order to enable the use of macroeconomic forecasts and simulations of the California economy to drive an input-output model of the California economy. This model thus serves to bridge the gap between the currently available forecasts of major aggregative economic indicators in California and the detailed industry-specific analyses possible with the California input-output model. The final demand components estimated by the model are: Consumer Expenditures on Durable Goods, Nondurable Goods and Services, Investment in Nonresidential Structures, Producers' Durable Equipment, Residential Investment and Change in Business Inventories, Expenditures by Federal, State and Local Governments, and Gross Exports and Imports. This report presents the equations of the model with a brief discussion of each. The estimates of the model are presented and evaluated. The methods used to update the data for the model and to solve the model are explained. A glossary of variables used in the model, historical estimates of the final demand components in California, a forecast of final demand components in California through 1983 and a complete listing of the equations of the model are contained in Appendices.

For questions regarding this research project, including available data and progress status, contact: Research Division staff at (916) 445-0753

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