Project at a Glance

Title: California long run county employment output forecasting system

Principal Investigator / Author(s): Hurst, Lew

Contractor: Data Resources, Incorporated

Contract Number: A3-137-32

Research Program Area: Economic Analysis


The Regional Model has taken advantage of several long established theories as well as recent advances in economic and statistical techniques to enhance DRl's ability to forecast regional economic activity. Among these is the use of export- base theory. This theory suggests that there is a set of industries within a region which sells its output in a national or international market. These industries provide the wages which, by a multiplier effect, drive a set of domestic or service industries. In most cases the manufacturing sectors of a region's economy are considered its export base. In some cases mining, finance and selected services may also be considered part of the export base.

The process of model development and enhancement is an ongoing process at DRI. Any model must be reestimated on a regular basis to reflect recent developments and new data. In addition, model re-estimation and modification are important parts of sound model management. Thus, improvements of the RIS Model are made on an ongoing basis.

For questions regarding this research project, including available data and progress status, contact: Research Division staff at (916) 445-0753

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