Project at a Glance

Title: Study to develop statewide and county-level economic projections. Volume I: California county economic forecasts. Volume II: Methodology. Volume III: Base case forecast. Volume IV: Business cycle scenario. Volume V: Pessimistic scenario. Volume VI: Optimistic scenario

Principal Investigator / Author(s): Kloepfer, Jay

Contractor: Desert Research Institute / McGraw-Hill

Contract Number: 92-326

Research Program Area: Economic Analysis

Topic Areas: Costs, Impacts


DRI / McGraw-Hill prepared economic profiles of each California county for use by the California Air Resources Board (ARB) in their emission forecasting model. Historical data and forecasts of employment and real output by industry were developed using a long-run county forecasting system. Historical data were collected at 2-, 3- and 4-digit SIC detail, as specified by the ARB. History data are annual from 1970 to 1992, forecast data cover 1993 to 2020. Four separate projections (scenarios) were prepared: business cycle, high growth or optimistic, low growth or pessimistic and best estimate or base case. Six volumes: I - Description of Forecasts; II - Methodology; III -VI - Summary Tables of Employment and Output, by County, by Scenario.

Outlook for California is for slow near-term growth, as the state will not return to its 1990 employment peak until 1997. The state will continue to lag the nation until 1996. In the longer term, California will eventually surpass the nation in growth near the end of the decade, as the state's comparative advantages in industry structure, natural and human resources, and geography will enable it to prosper. Real output will grow faster than employment, as continued competitive pressures from across the nation and around the world will drive productivity gains in California's manufacturing industries.

For questions regarding this research project, including available data and progress status, contact: Research Division staff at (916) 445-0753

Stay involved, sign up with CARB's Research Email Distribution List